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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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4 x: O8 |$ P' e, x* w d2 e但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？! u* j1 Q3 Z' X
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
; ^$ V& k' G/ A$ d6 z1 h; V4 E( i2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。! }+ W# ], a0 O* K' j% q! O
O0 c; T6 o) a. j% I来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。% Y8 s+ @2 ?2 }5 @# ~
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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7 n) a* ~8 [8 K2 O事情变得有趣了
1 I1 |* X8 u* g$ j, Y6 KBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 ?3 S9 D' n; d. i
5 y& q$ G& \6 N( ~7 O来源：X; X7 ^: ]% |! v
" T! Z* R! C; q* w2 J根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。. W' U5 r8 w& e& h
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。% f; m4 d% \* ^
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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) K' M. j& e: F$ M9 n随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。1 Y* v4 M; v9 R$ J, e" R
! E& J0 n5 @. |+ P4 e* e空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
& O2 ?2 C0 S& p/ H0 H. ?经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。8 h! } C* s) w2 @5 T z6 ]
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来源：TradingView+ T6 X: {+ V+ K4 j2 L
; e. |, ^3 t" N1 B, ^1 `日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。4 E; r6 p& l6 Z! E* f
: |+ G1 U* B4 m5 y& c! \* O* I突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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