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[虚拟币交流]
FED主席警告：2023至少再升息2次！市场期待降息不切实际（转载）
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联准会主席Jerome Hayden Powell在美东时间周四早上亲赴参议院银行委员会听证会重申FED立场，Powell表
7 o- D, M" _; h* q示，虽然在六月的FOMC会议没有升息，但这绝并不是停止升息的讯号，仅仅只是放缓升息脚步，不代表不会继
$ ` Y1 D/ g; `续升息。
; Q: ?0 I2 K3 }; U' ?Powell认为，打击通膨刻非常坚定的原因是美国的工人阶级正在饱受催残，因此将通货膨胀率坚定地守在2%这个
/ r) i2 G/ F: L$ I$ H' {8 j节点上是至关重要的，而且Powell也强调联准会成员都相信我们正在接近(这个目标)，但他承认，加息仍要再往上
' a9 `# w- E3 V7 O7 G; l走一些。
: o8 r( w9 a1 A o9 U& a“一开始我们动作很快，后来就慢慢放慢了，这只是现况的延续…我们很好的预测，如果经济按预期运行将会发生
6 G4 y3 }0 A7 a4 E1 X什么。”
. f( h: M1 p! h* H重申再升息两次、市场过度乐观
& U$ F1 k9 v) \$ z9 j在最新的升息点阵图中，FOMC对于2023年的最终利率预期值中位数是5.6%，这意味着若每次升息25个基点, w+ P3 K4 Y3 y: i% H3 r
(0.25)，当前的利率来说仍需要至少再升息两次以上(当前的利率区间为5%~5.25%)。
9 B% k# J D- i" W4 A2 z- _Powell在听证会也回答了是否会在2024年以前出现降息，而他回应不可能很快发生，Powell认为市场过早关注于7 h9 H6 v9 T A6 A, Z' w
降息的可能，这太过乐观了：对于降息我们的判断，就是看我们是否对通货膨胀回归到2%的目标有信心，也需要
5 u" i# V7 t* r" y观察经济发展如何，就目前的状况来说，通膨的持续程度超过许多联准会成员的预期。 ^3 `+ z( v$ ]3 v
对银行爆雷回应* h6 F" U! e6 |
除了升息议题以外，对银行相关的监管也是许多参议员询问Powell的核心攻防话题，Powell回应近期要求提高资# R4 d7 A( G- I2 q5 g
本适足率的要求，是针对资产规模超过1000亿美元的超大型银行，对一般小型银行、社区银行没有影响。而至于
# |# \, s1 @9 u" {2 u硅谷银行的破产监管责任，Powell也承认当前的美国金融与FED系统有执法上的问题，需进一步地的改革：对公
Z) \# G0 d2 U4 U3 ?, M1 F2 ~务员来说，如果有渎职、违反规定的话，他们就会被解雇，但(硅谷银行)这次没有发生类似的事情，而旧金山联储
0 u( t ]% n; {$ K9 X( j, p; E当时也发现了问题，提醒了(硅谷银行)银行管理层，但后续的执法力度不够，这也是联准会体系的问题。0 M1 h# c) b2 u/ f- K
, b3 K0 H0 @6 R! ?
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