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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。! T) A7 w' @( _& h
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2 f6 z/ G: D$ m& L/ [8 O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 X' T, h, Q; m0 o/ s+ E, K8 c0 ]
8 V9 e8 [3 }# [$ Z* V
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:1 t D* ?4 J9 c/ B/ p6 v% Z
5 [1 Q8 Y$ z. `# U5 a9 R1 A! Y0 Y4 Z; A
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% , A* m8 L; m( U- [
/ V$ r. Q; u& K8 T/ I5 x很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
8 }, Z$ B4 U* R4 f% O3 F9 v2 z t6 x1 T
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)' @2 z* K% G/ K2 Q; R; X3 Z
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- D" _5 L; K/ Z( ^ }以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
4 [/ q3 m' C' U3 ?% `( _. K( R* W2 S+ L7 V
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盈利可能性; K5 z# z4 g- U* q7 w/ m2 w
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* \6 i! ~( N( Y! b: _; q' q
5 q/ {! {$ w) |. U9 d增值
& D2 h& v0 U7 H2 {2 @" ^" c, V
6 @7 n7 V# T1 x许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 m w! _* q* a
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
; F3 `6 C. S) E* W
v0 v8 S) }* j) h0 V; X正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
# e+ G+ a$ E- q. V# ]5 R$ c+ P- P. b# h# r. e/ V
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
Y3 {4 H: ]2 Q1 x/ U# R. {60%的机会你会一无所有
0 D- Y2 E' W8 b0 E8 o预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
$ }2 N# x. j, W0 a! Q由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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9 h4 F/ f) ?' {# P# q- I% E增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。5 a: s; e8 h3 M$ T- ?
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基于增值的投注
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3 T, p. d% M) {8 j9 A. H凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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7 T) ^. p4 x9 f4 G4 g/ l; o公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金2 A8 }$ [* S9 M7 a, |" ~% O
P=获胜机会$ [" b" c4 G M
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)" A0 f0 J5 B2 H& X
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。3 N5 `+ K% d$ S; j$ U
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。 P6 f8 |: ^% z3 I8 `1 ?( g, v
; D; }$ r( M% }8 E9 X: K/ P1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5) d# L8 _! @9 w$ g( ]6 o5 O9 N
1 P2 o5 M) B: I: _6 U! UA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5). p3 {: P, E. B2 D8 c2 }
' k7 v7 w. h1 p8 w$ e; uA=0" }+ d. H" l4 ?* a" G
1 @& h4 y) g; z4 T# ^$ q$ x结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 F) u+ a: E1 z! M6 t8 q X
- L- I! \; B& b. V, ]2 i% W2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
. A) ^7 B: Q% N9 ~6 @- P1 e8 y. }+ h1 c7 }
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
7 l; o. ?4 B0 g0 t0 S6 ]& |3 A" h; @5 Q. n6 X
A=0.1
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3 e! s( L9 z0 e/ X8 n d结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去- e; z8 W$ d. l; {: J
1 G O0 i0 A. u! D* A3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 * ~& I- `/ l% h4 Z
/ N" g6 B0 t+ o3 Z7 V5 f, |结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
x4 C) x( E/ C; ?1 ~; M% H
5 U1 G. I4 t9 [3 Y" m0 x; u# i第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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