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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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! }0 G5 @; `9 h9 c3 V6 J$ o衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
# s& O$ V, L9 i- `美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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" o3 c7 e/ G' j+ a4 M3 m融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。' j6 k' A7 A- y" i2 h9 _7 | |! Q
: p+ _) O6 ]4 H5 D) u3 g" p; ]5 \/ i ~过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。9 a: Z" v" R& H ^4 \
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国% F2 X1 }5 O |1 t/ m, e
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更# u7 a. c, J( a `7 c4 y
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是表示：' q3 _$ X' \3 A5 m
6 l ^1 U% m; q$ B8 j; q& ^这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。- h$ |2 ~! T1 a
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币/ T/ d; \. y J$ c3 h2 F. d4 i
" ~0 u3 X2 ~$ m$ g4 ~5 ?5 f- H特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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& @+ q# l8 i4 |, ?. c" A+ J周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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2 v$ `% i- F, n3 a" m: S4 u周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。; d {! @% ]* L6 x
8 Z4 w, O5 R! T周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。4 D, u" H2 ~: y) B8 j
) ]9 {; n$ V1 v周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。/ P! d9 b6 t1 P/ A4 M7 {
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，* U% ^, P# j( }- x! q. q
% N/ `" A$ O, `& D( H' `是的，这正是我们所看到的。"8 v- Y! ]2 r5 B. t1 h5 M0 q H/ P( u( x
8 ~2 s7 q& _9 U a D9 ?根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去* T& h+ Z4 A, ^$ |
$ _& Q* C. s8 [8 Z# o/ x年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。5 h' ~: X8 b0 P8 E& K, \) f
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: P6 \. D+ X0 }5 MRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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