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[lastpost] => 2750146 通过论坛注册YZ取款突然不能登录请问什么原因 1752816879 天策-菱玖
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前文提及两大因素提振金价，一是乌克兰东部局势紧张，二是黄金远期利率又再于近日变成负数，前晚美联储会议纪录再添一利好消息，纪录显示可能美联储并不会很快进入加息周期。耶伦早前的所谓六个月，意思约下年第二季便可能加息的言论，已令市场有一定的预期，而今次的纪录，明显可能让市场出现落差，利淡美元，从而使金价上升。+ I8 P# i% d4 Q$ `
美联储若在本年结束购债后，可能会有一段相当长时间才真正加息，而其他重点在于所有委员会成员都想就首次加息的门槛，作出改变，暗示不希望过早加息，并明确地关注通涨持续偏低，需致力维持2%的目标。事实上，是次鸽派味道较浓，市场亦有即市反应，美元应声下挫，唯金价动力未算特别大。
4 a2 p7 L$ m0 i笔者认为，市场杂音多，短线所谓加息预期有变，其实是市场借口，造低美元为实。笔者并不认为加息时间有多大分别，问题是即使2015也好2016也好，早晚都是要踏入加息时代，所以笔者认为美元的下跌确实有点「硬炒」。再说，股市的下跌及乌克兰局势，都理应带动避险，资金亦有流入美债，但美元未有反应。# z1 A, `" O! t: p& M) n
笔者预计，汇市中如澳元欧元，央行已暗示不希望汇率过高，尤其澳央行早前已明示地口头干预过，而欧央行亦已表示纳欧元汇率为政策考虑之一，相信未来一段时间各央行将会发表言论，压低汇价，美元届时又会借势回升。
( L9 \$ F* N6 a0 z' Z. r, S7 q不过，金价在这个环境下，升势较弱，一是滞后，二就是升不起，笔者相信金市会出现滞后机会甚微，若后市美元回升，金价将可能相当利淡。尤其美俄欧乌四方希望促成会谈，表示求外交多于武力，若事成将不利金市。
- F5 `* m; F! I1 }5 u技术上，虽50天线已收复，但未见有效突破黄金比率38.2%及50%阻力区，约1320及1334美元，建议1320可半注沽出，目标1300，止损1340。:victory: X# b8 q& z( e, s/ B- q9 U7 b' \/ y
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黄金 图表都是向下跌
本帖最后由 寒战 于 2014-4-15 12:48 编辑 - O7 A d7 ?- R0 F9 ]
' R, S, Y0 W& O+ h8 a- I
黄金 图表都是向下跌 目标1300，止损1340 |
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