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一、百家樂常见的错误
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3的搭配机率是1/8,如果见持续3个不异的搭配,例如BBPBBPBBP之后用3式缆反买BBP(即PPB),中一口的成功机率是否1/8x/1/8x1/8x1/8=1/4096答案是否认的。由于持续3个不异搭配已经实际呈现,等于4096个搭配之中有4096–8=4088个搭配不成能呈现,只剩低余下的8个搭配可以呈现,所以胜的机遇率仍旧是7/8。现详细列出他们以便利理解:
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8 E9 W8 w1 X* n- P0 i1、BBP,BBP,BBP,BBB I5 F3 ?$ q: H; N8 o
2、BBP,BBP,BBP,BBP
8 A8 W$ K- m1 ?4 e# |3、BBP,BBP,BBP,BPB, J, H' E0 o# e; g' W
4、BBP,BBP,BBP,BPP1 `) v2 v) ]" S0 V
5、BBP,BBP,BBP,PPP& s |5 L% V, D0 T
6、BBP,BBP,BBP,PPB
$ Z* t+ |' c8 |7、BBP,BBP,BBP,PBP- C1 b/ t0 a/ v* _1 v9 c, Q
8、BBP,BBP,BBP,PBB
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0 Q# }6 ^- X2 p* o- y* C% C' x所以无论是什么搭配,当它已经实际呈现,它的概率必定是1。已经实际呈现的BBPBBPBBP概率是1,用3式缆买反的整体胜率依然是7/8。
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7 o& h% ?5 W: r二、2式缆赌N搭配的错误有一个很自然的想法,之前开了例如BBBPB,跟着反买它即PPPBP去赢1个码,机遇率是1/32,死穴是反复的BBBPB。; j2 ]7 d$ b6 {, D* t1 [
8 v" \% K: S/ A2 b R/ }
为了节流金钱,好自然想到如果输了1口或2口才追,一来可以增加取胜机遇,二来可以节流金钱,所以便发生“同买分歧,分歧买同”的心理和策略。例如:见BBBPB,再见B,可能会认为如果买了第一口已经输了,余下四口用4式缆博赢一口的机遇会大一些;又或者等已出了二口BB才用3式缆博赢一口的机遇会大一些。现实上,这个策略是按比例裁减了一些胜及负的搭配来换取低成本:只见B才下注,便会错过8个BXXXX及8个PXXXX的搭配;同样只见BB才下注,便会错过12个BBXXX及12个PPXXX的搭配;所以这个策略亦没有提高风险回报比率,它的取胜机率完全由运用的式缆来决议,即2式缆=3/43式缆=7/84式缆=15/16。5 O V5 i2 q4 y6 k) c
三、结论
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5 Y ~$ @% n7 |! b: Z无论等任何模式下注,如,PP后买B(拐弯法);PPBP后买P连;PPBPPPBP后买P不连完全没有影响50%定理。
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