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[lastpost] => 2771577 问各位大佬,有用过欧易的吗 1759809256 22301
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。1 C9 o, O: Z. O6 E9 x( s: u. r$ }
" C1 t- G3 u/ [; P/ oPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。3 m* v$ c! C4 G2 X
$ y. {; c. p! k# nCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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/ T% X$ b; y- N- q% H2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;$ m* x! u/ z7 l" J d
, Y% F% _8 i1 N5 a% U% RETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。- r# E3 Z& S9 W9 `0 Q' K0 \
% o: A" e6 u7 Q9 T/ I比特币价值回归:
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5 b3 y8 t: A$ T7 T* P2 N市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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4 p3 P `) A0 a$ n i* e随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。1 Q3 s5 h! F+ n; e
4 o) a* o' i- ?% G/ z8 _加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。3 \' U2 R) e# I1 B
& N* F7 \, z \: B( }7 P( z3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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" T" ^) i8 b! H( y% Z1 Z- k虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。! p. k! I# O: t
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BTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。" Y% r9 g' \2 ~8 v+ \
# V. y1 ^+ X9 I2 ?# w4 }; K) HSOL与XRP:
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h, i2 V6 s6 dSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:
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* _+ z2 {! H% n$ u涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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9 ~3 y9 {2 n' ~& T& r山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。" a8 w4 @) Y' c) ~; B0 v
: Y9 z1 m% m% P c* y1 b4. AI赛道与新兴项目$ A- j+ V* b$ w, A0 }2 Z
0 x: f% T) C( ?1 ZAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。6 M( Q6 L# w. N$ Q4 r1 _) s
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。2 E$ j; M0 Q1 K( F1 M- ^, b8 \
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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. R9 p0 u! U' }市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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