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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管:人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转)
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称,在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易,而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际,比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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) z s+ L( ~; M8 u4 GBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示:“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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Park 指出,2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元,旨在增加ZF支出,同时还有去全球化趋势加剧,尤其是唐纳德·特朗普* r- a: Q" H% W9 U# x0 ^4 A a
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。; g" W' \, x- \9 H9 h
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Park 还指出,市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”,指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”,共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”,以及他认为即将实施
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6 V4 L9 q$ T9 c9 K d6 E的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日,他告诉参议院银行委员会,美国经济“保持强劲”,美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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/ E( f! `9 ^0 t" z/ X& ~6 Z7 IBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道:“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”1 t3 a9 v/ i0 Q: h5 g
+ \' `! d9 b1 o) h$ f* J, o“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的,你看不到这一代机会,所以我们不一样了,”Park 补充道,他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率6 j" g1 x; C& r0 q1 n: \/ A
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。# w2 q$ t" B: Z( }# {1 y
( e9 `. Z2 F: h( ~根据 Deribit 的数据,比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90,低于年度高点 71.28,IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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/ P; j' O/ Z& z据 CoinGecko 数据,比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%,交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。
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6 \( [' J: H4 V! R5 ^0 I) N! |" S: |今年到目前为止,比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间,但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。" j3 r5 _' i; I- ^
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分(总分为 100 分),表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善,但低于7 h$ [# L! F4 S
. j7 U5 X' `# A H上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。5 S- `# w3 S' M% V8 @" |
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