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[lastpost] => 2777981 比特币的近期波动性和宏观驱动的定位：2025 年投资分析（转） 1761984904 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格：近期暴跌中发现的 7 个重要链上信号（转）
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上周，在加密货币市场普遍回调的背景下，比特币价格从约 11.5 万美元跌至 10.5 万美元以下。著名市场分析师 Burak Kesmeci 表示，此次价格下跌期间，链上出现了一些动态，这些动态可以反映当前市场行情和潜在的价格走势。
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比特币指标显示极度恐慌，但局部底部可能即将到来
& \; V7 H% o0 d# L( p在一个X 帖子10月18日，Kesmeci 报道称，比特币的链上格局闪现出一系列关键信号，这些信号普遍表明市场恐慌情绪加剧，并存在潜在的增持机会。该分析师分享了比特币10月第三周下跌期间七个重要链上指标的最新动态。
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6 q, C* s0 Q, o! Q3 [+ K$ ?& q首先，恐惧与贪婪指数跌至“极度恐惧”区域，反映出比特币最新价格回调后投资者的焦虑情绪激增。然而，Kesmeci 指出，这种情况通常出现在市场低点附近，而非峰值附近，因此可能并非理想的抛售时机。
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与此同时，净未实现盈亏（NUPL）指标跌破50%，市场情绪由乐观转为担忧，因为持仓者的平均盈利能力正在下降。在衍生品市场，融资利率变为负值，表明空头仓位目前主导着期货市场。
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股票方面，最大的加密货币基金管理公司MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的股价跌破300美元，反映出比特币相关资产的整体疲软。不过，该公司也增持了220个比特币，使其总持仓量达到640,251个比特币，进一步巩固了其长期以来的信心，并凸显出尽管面临短期压力，机构投资者仍对其信心持续。+ l" A8 \' K {- E8 i
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此外，链上估值指标也突显了深度超卖的情况。高级 NVT 信号跌破 -0.5 个标准差，这一水平在历史上通常与市场超卖和早期触底阶段相关。活跃地址情绪指标 (AASI) 显示，比特币价格相对于网络活动而言已大幅下跌，这种关系通常会在基本面先于情绪稳定后出现复苏期。$ O& C& k$ z3 m' R
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综合考虑所有这些信号，表明比特币正处于极度恐慌和超卖的环境中。然而，Kesmeci 也暗示，本地市场底部可能正在形成，这表明当前的市场状况提供了强劲的增持机会。! O1 g. a* ~7 h: r( `8 q( Q
+ Z2 T* U& F( s: _5 k8 V6 D比特币价格概览% r% i- U9 U, x0 x$ M8 Q5 H; m/ j
截至本文撰写时，比特币交易价格为106,970美元，过去24小时内下跌0.29%。月线图显示，比特币下跌了8.32%，目前该主流加密货币正努力确立其预期的“十月上涨”看涨形态。不过，Coincodex分析师预测市场即将反弹，五天内目标价将达到124,172美元。
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