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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。/ o# E; c9 ^% j; T8 h
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& ? R8 r$ V! L7 t6 q4 E4 ]西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率; x( x) k' L; I$ W
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:8 Y |/ p& y. Y) c$ [9 q0 \
+ I; h" j/ y5 N' b# v2 j0 W
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% + \* I: Z& C8 i& i
5 U' R: Q' I1 P, X很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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3 [1 j. f4 B: Y& W答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ U2 V8 O4 P: N" ?$ a7 |+ X# [
9 e& }7 |; ~' N# j9 i5 S增值: r K1 ~8 c! k& ^
: v3 a5 b" D% ~9 l" G0 @许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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; V W2 W3 {; e( W4 ra) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
4 ] R) e! E; ~( a2 I) k
7 N2 C8 @5 R% V+ m; r. H1 u8 g; U正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 Z/ p& x, o: V/ _
60%的机会你会一无所有
9 ]5 ]! A# r/ Q, S8 a& M预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
. O! p, i' T, T M由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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. r: y, X/ F) q$ y基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。% Q+ U" i8 q$ U" d+ \ c
; F) H6 S0 v6 t6 O! X公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金7 f! @8 g/ W+ k0 B8 o7 M0 E
P=获胜机会
% m9 X1 S8 Q% h: B2 m1 }O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 F" \" i: r+ _% H
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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" u' b5 A ]7 j9 j* S. G1 T5 D1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& b1 \2 u. f3 y8 E& Q$ u! M4 J2 N
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A=09 ?. R* @6 l. |7 O, I
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)$ }( @7 Y0 _- A) e1 v- K: x: }7 j
( F8 h4 I; S5 B/ \% ?+ vA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)& L" h- O# o: T# p
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去1 b: s' H: D1 e% r) R0 f9 {5 W
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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9 y8 s( ^; q* e" H% ?A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1) u/ y. _. M& [% b, o
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A= -0.2 % g# K6 T* k5 y/ a
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好, M: [$ Z" v0 c
% J- I* k& u0 V( E, L$ {6 d
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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