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小分3种情况:( ?3 ^2 c+ G; ?8 h+ u% ^
* O% B W6 q; v$ k! M6 u1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
0 t$ ?& P' Y! V# p6 H+ B {& `. [
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。1 w3 N' U6 k- x1 j; \
5 P* A' w9 n; B! A; [3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。+ C9 J: x2 v$ z! c+ J4 p0 N3 u
2 F% Q9 o$ H" i6 f. N6 g* q2张牌8或9点的情况有:
. R% P% |( P) i$ M$ q8 Z5 {6 q
# \ o/ b9 U6 M: |1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10& a& g+ A0 p4 q: w: P0 M/ F0 m
/ i& ~) _2 l, t7 \2 ]0 f$ ~# p1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
- J( V, b& O* \( r# A
& `' Q5 H1 V; J4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4151 E: q) N' D9 t7 z2 z2 F3 ?
' J% R, V" V9 X$ p. O m8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 T% n: Q# ?9 ~ v* `5 {1 t7 G7 ^
* n" q, M* k" b, J1 p" k( Z) |
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
$ L" e+ z; W9 g- V6 w9 _; F P" U+ S1 _' I, _7 B
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
" m8 i2 k" s7 i: H0 t' }' u/ ~; }
; t9 l. S+ q6 p0 [那么我们可以得出
# P3 a7 s7 J+ f( R$ `. V9 z% c7 {( p
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346627 ^0 I* R( l7 \! G& n0 v- d
( u6 e3 O5 P9 @: p( L1 Z2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ! v& u6 E- i3 P4 r
% {4 z, N! z( D0 B S1 d/ `3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
2 m" _/ R5 @+ G' T
. g+ Z, L" v' ]9 k所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323 c$ i$ e1 N- \# G' Y$ ~
, M0 \: W3 z: ]百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
/ O0 Q ^' i/ P+ l. o' G9 g |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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