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[lastpost] => 2771164 虚拟币市场依然是涨热门跌山寨啊 1759565219 老衲来了
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势9 \: A C" H* M7 H0 i
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。: i6 C, O h; w/ T# l4 U. S7 {
0 @; X8 e4 V' i0 u' FPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。. N+ H' I: E% k& C/ J, \
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。. Q) j, h2 Y1 ^$ g
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期$ i. r% u$ d5 ~' |8 g+ W8 }7 |
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当前持仓成本:
5 h6 ~7 r% M9 r. u; a8 i. b4 V4 j5 Z8 h8 |
机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;9 R' y0 N+ P1 R* e/ K% Y
& V% ~3 ?, U$ y# U% o微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。3 |5 C C. N2 Z1 e4 d# V2 [' p
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比特币价值回归:
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4 u4 K2 \; o0 }3 @( ^* z市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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% i f/ w% C# m4 U" ~随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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% A: F0 f; y; U- ^. h3. 市场热点与反弹情况( U( ?- u' p7 ~, a9 Q
/ q' o" ^/ {/ e% u0 O5 o8 Z) WETH:% i$ D5 H# l9 Q9 ?9 g& X3 E
# r1 r- {7 s/ t9 A" z) f0 C虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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( C; G' x1 ]. o) W* V机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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; G. M+ R1 |+ L( C( |+ q z如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:0 k2 w; G! r: T& ]: o
6 w/ Q& r; H p' p# v7 WSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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1 G9 L& h; ]/ c9 q! m, X9 Z' p* VXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。1 U4 M) x+ U9 U( ~; {' C" f5 r& T
& A! v' n s# z# w8 S其他热点项目:3 A$ S1 G) \. A7 J
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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" F5 j F1 L: w) |山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。" ?& i( z* P' o; X5 N+ H7 e
7 S6 c0 R! R9 N8 R# O( k3 J4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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& ] o6 T, M* R! l. p$ M# r5 E) N" F蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。" F' p3 k/ W7 M3 y$ \; Q
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。; s' I& k% s# U+ N" l1 R, l- g! o) u
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市场展望
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; z! p0 I k. I5 _9 A- q随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。& [$ q0 c6 V3 q0 Q q1 c
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