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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。1 i7 M) O% F, r: q" y, @2 [5 V7 Z
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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, e7 {5 f, z. Z, ~, l8 XUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？5 S- n/ f+ U, V3 U
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市! U, ?! T2 Y5 ]
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。+ K* Y) g: E) Q# x
7 @) D6 Y% A: i: V* a; N尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。9 m% z2 U2 Y/ A7 x
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事情变得有趣了4 L( ]2 m8 X, d3 c: |5 b; G
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。8 r, o4 \; N" q* k
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来源：X4 K1 |' ]) i+ g3 d
( A' Q4 J" x u) B3 d, i( `- X根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。% e. b, c* T" Y I# j9 ~
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。4 l7 E, ?' L8 B: \
9 d; ~7 F* p, `; {% j% C" ?1 N! L4 H空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
9 ?7 e; B: }3 V2 y p' i经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。& ?: t0 a6 F% }
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来源：TradingView$ F4 D8 s1 o1 {% J4 Y
+ ]1 R2 H1 h [' u日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。3 g5 a0 U+ U0 K' {; I! @, v$ Y
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。; B) w6 s5 R+ {% g) X" ]
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。$ L. E- Z0 v3 M) H/ I" w$ @' [& x, i
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