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[lastpost] => 2771221 比特币ETF引发稀缺性炒作,重现黄金在上世纪70年代的上涨(转) 1759587271 小梦
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。- w* V) J, h- |/ r- \
2 E$ u; ~* E2 g1 X$ xPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。% h$ Z9 Y/ _$ \6 ?. G
0 ]. V; x9 ^6 }/ J$ ]CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。3 k) g6 K7 N6 j
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期6 O7 [; H$ b+ e9 R( |' i
( U4 \2 M1 ~3 v5 w2 l/ T当前持仓成本:; n( G9 b) x! C; w; z6 l5 ]7 [
H/ w, t9 T1 ^) J" m3 {+ O" `机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 v3 u: k; [7 o. O7 D& i
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。8 ]1 T+ U3 Y# @. Q
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比特币价值回归:
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4 Z' d; }- g n4 r) `! `. m3 p市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
7 j) d3 C7 t- C
@" K: i- W" l6 e随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。7 D( _ S: O: b7 B7 }2 C8 M0 ^
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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, u- {1 U& k% }- b+ E3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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' q! J% E( \3 |0 E! q+ _( CETH:* Q0 e; ]; z3 k7 m
. L$ N: G8 G8 H% ?" }虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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1 e) @# M+ M6 h' E1 q机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。# q+ @" @1 w3 v# j+ v1 X& A
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BTC:; h9 ]' R( M( T8 o$ \
2 p! _4 D: a; K尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。9 K l( I$ N; E) @, y7 d3 w' s
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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2 I A" r- B' K( e3 i! GSOL与XRP:
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& W, }- b& f; PSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
2 v3 d3 [9 P1 Y& i T ]" ` B$ ]2 Z! G! J8 y) b9 Q b$ Z
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:. \; I1 M8 c9 x# e* ^$ c
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。4 C; v2 r' m4 _3 i! g
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目( C0 w$ p- A. @- t6 r( B
' q9 X6 c$ v! P) e1 R2 qAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。8 v( x, i/ J" Q9 P/ L* w
- A* {( M H7 U# y! s- b
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。3 W5 Z1 {/ w) b/ I9 ?
( e3 P) [* q5 ]: b新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。# S: M% N9 L, |) b6 |$ X* g0 r( v
' _0 b, U$ @# c3 a. Q市场展望! t$ s' r2 ^: {2 ~& f w2 O
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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