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[lastpost] => 2770393 2025年9月虚拟币讨论大厅发帖任务（开奖公示） 1759287117 天策-菘菘
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。; N" P; M- s$ Y S1 ~
4 c4 H t1 y5 B/ X5 H瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”7 a/ d% ^6 r4 m j
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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# w0 S6 e9 A; k9 O q过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益4 U1 k- z" `7 x0 k8 S
* y# @6 j7 b1 b. k4 w+ @2 Y率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：0 ]9 e: B- U0 z9 R
$ @: _# ] N( {: t( I. z这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。' Q/ k7 s0 x' I% A5 v+ T ]: @- N1 u
- e9 i/ o, S6 A0 Y' i4 ~( i/ l历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：& m+ R2 h; {1 u- I$ j1 g
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债' A8 W/ h$ o" _. ~1 p
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收益率冲高回落。8 P" q; V3 A6 w* M
( h- `( C" I, Q4 c& T$ i5 c周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。' E5 D( A# T& Q' |( P0 o8 E
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5 u) L! u/ B. X% R' D9 XLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，9 T, q6 y6 G, b2 E9 `( y2 e
' y5 M# p: v, ?) A是的，这正是我们所看到的。". z8 ~: L, L9 u
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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2 C& l* ?- q0 H6 E l2 R, S7 G4 E6 w年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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