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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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) b- j4 U; F( A8 ]7 T西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ Q7 I' k: M% Z$ Z
F+ f- N" e' c( Y1 H以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
7 @) x) I) S/ d) b% _) T. S
" ]" |: W" G Q* p皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
: B4 Q1 A/ A3 _# }5 ?$ F7 Y+ W0 I8 e2 y6 K) H0 Z
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' M/ g( s- u' z5 {2 |
5 C6 x4 d/ O8 `$ X, Z
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?8 Y9 _# x* S% ?6 i3 u
) ?5 H1 ]7 M2 ?# c5 o: E
/ R+ V) S e, ~$ l; Q
盈利可能性! @1 C1 n8 Q; k
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值- b7 D3 I$ Q! `: p; l
$ L& M$ Y1 Z) {1 z许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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$ t. D {4 \0 _! T8 T& q你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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b! F8 `/ }. i6 Ha) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 0 B7 f0 e8 \# K' c
$ F; b; w. g( a正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
' Q* ^8 j' T1 r' d8 p( H; k& ~8 B* K+ ^! |' @
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润; J3 a& N* F5 W. N: T7 B% P
60%的机会你会一无所有2 I1 S1 h8 }4 N. \
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 - x# |& }) \: k6 u! c0 Y [! c
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。 O! e; ~4 v4 x/ z3 j
5 j2 @& p' k* i增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。4 U' U1 ]( ?8 o! [
# I- L6 g4 Y! d- [- `; N基于增值的投注# @/ a5 O& d0 T9 A7 S7 X
- S2 t& M. U1 ?) x7 P凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。( n- f# V1 S' f' @1 ?7 a
# f6 \3 w* R0 z0 F+ Q& D1 [公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1) [1 K3 t- _8 Y; E" {- X
e3 d5 M; {2 v" w! g; DA=博彩资金
|1 H% g3 A8 i( f! f# F$ B/ c& ZP=获胜机会
1 `% O5 s* r2 y4 f! Z% UO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)1 Z6 d7 D7 X* T
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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# K2 l/ x+ V: V5 O好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。# j% Q' q* _; n
" F1 T6 ]! w5 M1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 w4 u6 ~' ]% R$ D0 f; G+ P k* }
' a/ s. F/ U5 v& }0 J8 yA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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8 r% p! ]% {: @. s- ZA=0" |8 \$ Y2 a7 a2 \# J6 t( B
+ F* D, m: ?" Z; x! ^# J结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢3 y0 F% T1 m: o: v/ M& l. h% q
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)8 k0 G5 V/ Y; Y9 |9 [3 f% J
! d4 `# c+ M4 J9 P, F9 j7 \A=0.1
- x7 z( `/ m- i
, b" e. A! @* t' F' Q结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去/ o1 J, U" G% l& a% c
4 v3 ~' f5 {; b% T- Q& }/ e( V3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)) s8 n+ m/ Q. V
4 [+ n F- T- m7 X& p; D! uA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), T" V8 z, @. j) I2 Z
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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& C5 J5 c1 K3 ^第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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