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[lastpost] => 2783642 比特币暴跌，市场情绪崩溃，超过70%的活跃资金蒙受损失（转） 1763809569 jackcool1011
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当前离线
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，" H: O u# r$ |& E8 u
3 ?& d2 G4 m; u3 x0 ^5 ~& f5 R2 ~+ }# |& v1 C
形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
% Y a4 K1 L" S \% E2 j
+ R2 j) @* \# X1 W+ ~! R* p6 _逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政. w( y j* [' H7 s1 L
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策的确定性。/ r p' C9 x0 |, L
6 D* P/ N; E' t! z( q4 M 中信证券主要观点如下：9 j- B& b/ h4 L0 t4 w9 z- B
( A: {- V; M* s) C: c
加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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3 k- M' p" v9 m% J: A( P 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。% |3 L$ n/ O+ O
9 P9 @% {0 I3 M) S% x, ]) t9 ^/ F2 }
近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。9 S( Q" t% X1 q5 C' }' S2 f) A
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现+ S9 v9 C+ S2 k0 e6 B: M4 m
% V" k0 ?6 y3 Y. Y! u) X0 \! z不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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6 t/ @4 I8 Q% c 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。7 W7 _7 H6 s+ e8 J* s: p% ]: h8 S
% `* P0 c- [7 M# p7 @% h2 i 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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4 j% @* i* Z8 s 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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! [0 c/ [ q" D/ {$ i& u 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫/ N$ l3 _& g, X2 [3 A$ ?1 y9 Q
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。; \; l6 p% S7 z9 [
! k& v5 L% E' v t8 A 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
& ?7 j) ~: @9 {- b8 ]& ?! f, q# ^3 a- w+ }- k) J
共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。! U( y/ r+ \9 Q# z5 Y
+ A. k: F0 \- p4 Z& @! g5 Q 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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1 K2 \# A. M( f+ P$ F 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣! M5 d. l( V5 ?/ d- Y* c7 b
+ v) t, W+ t6 M1 V. _- y; W! V4 }势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。! i; n; k% h* p& D2 ?
. l* M' D: F$ v: b. Z3 z# _ 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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6 M1 c( g5 O. P策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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D- Y6 Y1 v6 d3 u4 L 风险因素：/ y% n6 z2 f7 P% l
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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