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[lastpost] => 2774981 比特币跌破 STH 成本基础 – 为什么这可能是买入信号？（转） 1762622696 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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9 C8 C4 A9 r1 _& o1 H( @: U但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？% c0 h- D4 _# E g1 I
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
& y" v5 y1 D3 z$ m/ r f7 I# ~2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
# Q0 d Y- [) Z* j- Y, q; Q+ b9 C7 p/ _+ M& I7 l7 G. l; o- K) v
来源：Alphractal5 m2 \% {4 G: v3 X4 \" X+ s7 K
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。' [% p2 _* J4 E( \! e. L% F* P4 U
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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* w6 t# }" I; @+ j% N事情变得有趣了
) e7 o7 F& m% } l* ?, kBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X1 `, G8 H4 P6 Y* @9 c5 ?9 K" V8 ?: \
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。3 k+ q( j6 e) H4 K# F5 T3 ^, U
7 L( _! ~. d, G& d: o) n+ W' A/ l随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。1 j; d3 W. @) k; @& b1 |3 B8 S8 a
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力! y' O/ E' u/ w
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。2 G( J* o& K9 f$ V r% t- X
) g! [. n( C! j8 j, Y/ r% l& T来源：TradingView
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, [ [" {# X% {8 x/ r日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。5 Q$ Q, j( x6 Y% F9 D; G
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。$ ~/ P" v# |& G
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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