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全球第二大加密货币交易所Bybit与Block Scholes合作发布了最新的加密衍生品分析报告。该报告提供了比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)在重要的年末期权到期期间的市场行为和未平仓合约趋势洞察。 报告显示，尽管BTC和ETH永续掉期的未平仓合约量未能回到2024年12月初的高点，但在关键的年末期权到期期间保持稳定。这种稳定性表明交易者并未大量依赖永续合约来对冲到期期权的delta值，这导致了这段时期波动性的减弱。 交易量在冬季假期期间下降，与此同时实际波动性也下降，达到了12月的最低水平。尽管12月的期权到期，但并未如预期那样出现波动性激增。相反，实际波动性降至近期区间的低端。 BTC期权的隐含波动率期限结构继续保持陡峭，长期隐含波动率约为57%，而1周等价期权交易价格低约5个百分点。大部分到期的未平仓合约尚未被再投资，维持了看涨-看跌期权的中性平衡。 因此，与2024年12月初的情况相比，BTC的期权市场显示出有限的杠杆，表明市场情绪谨慎。 尽管2024年12月底ETH期权大量到期，但市场动态保持稳定。12月的实际波动性激增并未延续到新年，目前ETH的现货价格波动性低于短期隐含波动性。 过去一周，ETH期权的隐含波动率期限结构发生了变化，先是短暂陡峭后又趋于平缓，与BTC持续陡峭的曲线形成了差异。这种模式表明ETH的期权市场正在为潜在的短期现货价格波动做准备。 有趣的是，ETH的看涨期权在2025年初获得了动力，主导了市场，表明交易者持乐观态度。
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