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[lastpost] => 2771894 比特币突发跳水!超16万人爆仓!什么情况?(转) 1759884418 九嶷风
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势7 R0 p! M9 ]. d# e) n
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。6 [9 E: k/ a; l% d: ?7 x
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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- J: |& z1 Z( A* ~1 P2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期' ~% h' a( R( K( o/ _1 u
& o3 H" {( H, l当前持仓成本:
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6 H. s! ^) X" o% n! M2 g机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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7 Y) M/ q1 f2 E5 lETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。4 g! F! J: c8 X6 V( z, N6 k5 z
$ J9 T/ X8 q5 J. P5 u( N( w( x$ @比特币价值回归:+ r4 c3 ]% {/ J8 f" x) K& j
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。) U. g' i6 p- [4 C' W# q
! }6 L6 l7 [3 `4 e- s随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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' T4 e3 I* q2 S+ E9 U) k加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。 l! l; v" c- M
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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' ~4 b% p- I4 E0 f9 r; w$ r虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。: u% t1 p8 s2 E( \( q
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BTC:
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. Q4 k# L6 f- k8 v尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。7 q' C! V( l. Q! K# @" F) d, g1 S
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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* J1 t7 J" n; ]SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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- f$ R+ U1 g0 u: y1 RXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。8 K% C% g0 U' f4 M: G1 H
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其他热点项目:; A, R7 d! s: C
8 K/ x, |, P2 ~+ X- ?. b" |- t涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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1 @5 a5 l0 X8 [0 Z山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。; n8 X+ J) P, [5 N) N. n; L
|! G8 m. ?5 `) } Q% P, R4. AI赛道与新兴项目8 Q. r- P6 {1 L4 C0 ^ Y) X
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。, [6 ~; s, e. e G$ e$ z
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。2 b8 M4 B' v: H( [6 z; Q+ C5 q3 ^
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市场展望" e) C/ r! A$ X- y
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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