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[lastpost] => 2761635 美债暴跌时 为什么比特币比黄金更抗压？（转） 1756719292 wuzhaoshichao
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大， ?# b; _5 i+ h& G& X7 ]
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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1 i0 g- E: k* u1 i* b. N逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政: O7 u. |/ F9 h6 h% d1 h0 x: z. W
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策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下：; W6 u* w& V7 d% e
" [1 g+ H, m( C. F' ? 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。9 T' u2 ^6 G( t2 c$ l2 ?/ p
6 g; f5 l K8 u: L% P2 u" J3 h0 t. m. b 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。4 w Y9 {0 }' q! C0 V+ c" m6 o
9 M* g/ S* B4 A 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。/ i0 _5 _% D8 e
( h- x. L" j; E6 o 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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1 u+ N1 L" s3 Z, X" |2 Q5 r9 ]' t0 r不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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6 [* K/ @* j7 w/ b 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。9 i: W( g; J3 B7 a
" P2 L' x* {; M3 `3 ?% o 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。* l: q, ]. I& O a/ g; @/ {" J
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫8 T5 f4 `# _6 L& @
$ s. l, x; z Q0 d9 d1 Q/ q破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。# H w$ L2 [+ ~+ p3 ]+ ^0 [
4 x5 O; L0 h N' A 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性* D; [1 n ~# \. N6 h% W
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。) x) N/ v& |; U( R4 `. V* }. [7 L
! Q L# S+ i+ j) ]3 {( y V7 w# ^ 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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$ ~4 R2 i+ C2 ]3 u1 T6 ^ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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: F$ c& H1 _4 m$ C9 l 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。1 t6 I' F2 m/ A# E- E! z6 c
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政+ \# _ p+ v& _2 L+ i# O
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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0 ^! l6 X9 n- `; r" L. e8 ?, ^6 N 风险因素：
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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