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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
6 ^  v$ v  F3 V3 W# l- \+ x8 J7 x# D8 t

/ p0 m& ?2 o! q只跟踪一个联赛/ g$ M6 s* w9 f7 i6 x

3 G4 }6 ^+ A% n4 {) ]7 t/ k& F" O1 O( P5 N2 B; @9 G  R% \' P
全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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* c4 S& g2 a0 o- f三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，) y' M& Z# v; R2 Z9 x

$ m4 R0 @) n3 |! b+ f: q* W$ A偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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0 y+ ?' @& @- [0 L$ H然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，8 \+ V2 U; w( L+ G3 ]9 ?% f

4 o2 u! D' k8 B5 {就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱% l) v! {/ U8 i! f" ~

3 @) l0 L8 \) C% s  i* ^当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目: p( c' T- a5 H: r5 k$ i, S

% ~0 W! k( Q( p, c5 z8 r
- ]: L% |' F9 T# c2 g5 {- ^
& Q3 Q! N8 F* u9 l" \( P, K8 @# z亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
) ?+ Y8 h9 j- S& S2 {) L# U7 h% e3 |
4 P5 t# R' y* n: ]而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
& K" K8 b# A. l- K  X% v1 ?, L& G( a7 F. ~5 x9 U2 l/ N
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。. y( R8 x) [: }
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。$ ^* Q: D* ]+ m& ?
: x0 z9 ~" X- b% u. \! u
排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，6 i8 b. n1 g0 W% J( d

/ {' g* h' x8 V5 S2 i. L" E但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
6 ?' a2 b. `5 |3 k5 _, K4 y4 o. ]
这比买国债存银行合算。5 ^: e; J% T2 [; J1 X
/ t$ n0 u& ]3 _
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
0 q( M' W) d5 d/ L; e+ G  k9 }% o$ [5 U' j2 N
几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。5 T$ K) Z) r1 h

% R6 z& E5 l/ n9 [6 S" U! k5 m/ u* Q
7 m: m5 I- {: K) w  n  r
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
4 h6 h  P, \( b( @8 p6 k% p! E: ?+ T" Z% a0 W/ A( y
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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/ _7 x2 Q8 Z  r9 z2 N9 r+ Z" T就是回避了大的亏损，; h( E# Y! d" g( @/ Q
# j( d2 A3 P! V' ]# I0 d& f; ^
大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，* _+ v$ V5 C, p5 R7 M8 J! K8 ?& ]
  ^3 ~& Z. k, h3 [4 w8 [
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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