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[真人] 求教百家乐优势概率和返水极限问题
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1#
本帖最后由 DC老兵 于 2013-5-22 11:21 编辑 2 C; x( I( w& T, {

4 y; G, n& A) [2 o+ a* j  Y刚和一个朋友聊到优势问题
5 r; o9 ?$ v( z9 r- W正常的算法是& n% B( F  h3 T+ m9 O
庄家(Banker) 403,095,751,234,560 45.87% 1.06%
( C2 F6 N8 |: {2 ]1 f# b* k; J. G闲家(Player) 392,220,492,728,832 44.63% 1.24%
& q2 I+ x% |! J0 x! N和局(Tie) 83,552,962,932,288 9.51% 14.44% * W; h4 b5 \. ]
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已
0 R$ V$ i3 {2 n( E3 a3 @( o问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0
0 B3 J) r6 G, i8 [' m& h6 a) j3 C$ R) s3 m$ Q
我的的粗略算法是
" z2 }; B  c, Q* A- j- `. e: K- Y每次下100元,下两次,从概率看庄闲各中一次,共下注200元,被抽水5元,收195元,若返水1%的话加2元,实收197元,赔率是0.985(197除以200)
3 @4 b4 r- I1 ]: Q# D% q! e8 n这是粗算法,其实按精算法看出庄的概率大些,所以不能平分,
( O  C3 A+ {: ]+ h2 N. G* l6 S这样算的话返水达到2%都不算高,* W5 `3 H6 r  K% |# [) y
但另一个朋友的算法不是这样,带有些精算,讨论中
& H- M. k: k4 a, k& N大家也帮帮下
3 y+ P5 {; g4 N) D- }" v$ d  w( c% U- w
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已: ]: U4 s: w( \* n! j3 @- u& z
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0
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* r0 b+ V6 ]5 j$ `; ?, b8副牌, 押玩家
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
7 N" D( K) z0 q) {/ m第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为0
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.320 Q" c3 r( B8 H7 F. x: K  J
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
( b) b! u- k" L' x% Kacml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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6 \" Y/ b) n3 ^( X3 o7 u0 d6 s' P) l9 U    说的比较靠普 楼主都没算输掉的反水
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回复 3# 艾欧里亚 : d- H& U" k5 c2 s9 F! z

  j( e0 ^5 Y& @: {6 L) ]1 S3 x8 I+ _* w+ A/ e; j7 I0 x
    扫扫盲,现在网赌公司各项优惠加起来,玩家早就正收益了
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
回复 4# acml1986
5 N3 `$ n+ ^$ N* _* F, V, L) H( ]
* s: F- A* @8 K% {0 X2 z3 N:lol 正收益也难挡偶尔一次冲动啊
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回复 5# 艾欧里亚 4 M! X- m$ H/ h: o& M# r) B

' R! ^: |; q7 ]: X9 ~, `7 v! L8 K' {* O2 V7 C
    正收益也是零点几的微弱优势嘛,冲动带来的负收益是百分之几千几万了,哈哈
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回复 6# acml1986 : U0 W2 A  Q4 G. W, Y

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3 V3 t8 L; O6 f/ Q    战胜DC看来是比登天还难了,不如家当全弄进去 梭哈两手 告老还乡得了:lol
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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1 d2 z- z9 S6 {6 f. H6 v: e    是啊,破了人性还要破数学概率,这两样破其中一项都难比登天,更何况还要同时破两项,拿家当梭哈两把赌报应绝对是玩百家乐最好的打法
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9#
我的精算法是
+ y/ P5 b* g. j2 l第一步得出三者的概率:
2 Z/ A5 h  ?  C( K  v出庄0.458597
6 n* E$ ]; N$ m$ s出闲0.4462477 f: R1 k/ u, M" q8 m4 T  `# Z
出和0.0951568 r! q- c1 t* o; t2 b
第二步去掉和局,把庄闲换算成100%,庄闲丙者加起来100%
2 K8 q) P' ~* ~( ^1 Y) V庄+闲=0.904844( P: m6 H! W& B
换算成100%1 C- P4 l7 |  h- J7 v" g% N" d
庄的概率是0.458597/0.904844=0.506824=50.6824%2 u. T* d0 \1 P* y/ w) z9 W- x% q
闲的概率是0.446247/0.904844=0.493176=49.3176%
" S( [9 G4 Y# l* C1 ^" x$ b押庄家时的优势是
0 f- [+ ~% P, P50.6824%*0.95(抽水金)=48.1482%( e, {0 x4 o+ ^$ P! M% r6 n) S9 B
闲-49.3176%
& |3 s% X1 J$ e5 Y6 S: s- d两者相加玩家优势-1.1694%
# |! _! q) F9 ?4 ~押庄家时的优势是-1.3648%
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10#
回复 9# DC老兵
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8 P8 J4 [" X6 M, N7 v
    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
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11#
回复  DC老兵 ( L! Y5 L1 }2 Y& S; L) ~9 L1 A

4 a! C; z2 ~/ d0 A1 i9 _& ^2 v9 U
, _9 \! i/ V. R* i% T    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36# K/ c: J/ q; A* k- S7 L6 M
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 12:19

. D$ O9 _. I7 y5 V. }9 `* M" q3 E" i  I7 q
! P+ M7 T/ D" ?1 k4 p* ~( |5 q) m
    谢谢
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12#
回复 11# DC老兵
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    不用谢,还有撒概率方面的问题没,你现在应该看到,反水如果达到2,是多么大的正收益
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13#
楼主数学挺好啊
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谢谢楼主 的分享
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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' K3 e+ P' K6 @3 ^3 @" g3 O   这个是完胜庄家的唯一办法 但是有个前提 就是梭哈赢了 这辈子都不再玩了~
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17#
第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32/ A" Y3 A5 i  t4 X6 g; a$ C
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
6 d* _5 X* b$ l  {acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23

0 o& n9 ^" M" J; O+ s
5 N+ q/ T% @$ C  c3 @( X
* `# v/ _+ b) D# n2 \    说的太对了
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