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21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。# ]& R3 ^- m8 L, }
算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。$ d* s1 _& M! o: n9 x- E
依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。9 g% `( r, o. \- A
假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。
8 F; Y3 J2 Q* ~, c1 n  \4 Y真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。, V( [% Y" O: p' |8 M" F8 L
例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。
: c  ~$ s$ Y$ C& v) u假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。  P; `% Q4 T  {3 z9 y. G" u  @% H% d
玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。+ `4 w- L, w" D: o8 D$ R
如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。/ j2 ]' r4 Q; D8 P0 A9 |$ @7 a- D! d
把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:% m9 D# M$ C! s' \
下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计1 d9 x, P( b# U. C. U7 _
真1 500 700 800& `: u3 J9 `+ a' S+ g
真2 1400 2100 2400
- i, l( H, Y2 G. K/ e8 `8 o5 Y, m真3 2400 3500 4100
8 e5 e9 }: q5 o真4 3300 4900 5700
0 v9 F0 g( l4 B7 V7 r! y! G真5 4300 6200 7300) _# J& z7 E4 }: I* S! p
真6 5200 7600 8900; ~8 s7 C1 A0 g+ L
真7 6200 9000 10,600
( b5 X# A9 S- ?+ n9 g) x0 \" D如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?  p3 {4 w3 |* c! T7 e  B3 X
Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:
" s4 `+ ]- n: {  Y: `+ ~假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:
0 p. W* U/ p- f) z5 n! p* H一人打 下注次数 总下注额, Z9 a" B% Y3 l5 r. {
下一门 100 50,000*# b" K- G" j; W0 I9 {/ i" ~! H
下二门 67 48,910
+ j: \1 `7 r0 K% A: c8 w下三门 50 42,750* u) D) x. v& C. y' l
*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。
# m8 [# d; }/ J9 D' J若同桌有另一人下一门:9 |$ H8 V! U+ @
二人打 下注次数 总下注额
7 I, Y- Z  w- T你下一门 67 33,520' |% B% v& h' _4 ]" `0 b  C
你下二门 50 36,500*
# U6 ~6 e  {  c) n/ ?你下三门 40 34,200! k, q% d8 ^$ v8 Q8 x4 v0 s
*即下二门总获利最高。
: N9 ^0 C2 Q) `+ j' |$ ^: X若同桌有人下二门:. D" [/ j1 W( t  A
三人打 下注次数 总下注额
- a  J1 N+ O6 j- Z你下一门 50 25,000
+ u6 l' E( p# g/ W/ S  p你下二门 40 29,200*4 Z8 c6 W' i; I+ O1 s
你下三门 33 28,2151 {+ c$ ?" _. }9 z6 `- [% c  f
*也是下二门总获利最高。
( q/ ^3 e1 U7 E3 ?$ {4 a若同桌有人下三门:
: Q, ^- d4 ^4 e2 {; B四人打 下注次数 总下注额0 v1 h8 g, j" z7 [0 X
你下一门 40 20,000
+ _$ W3 C4 u# N/ x: ~) C你下二门 33 24,090( |' v% X/ j8 z0 j) o
你下三门 29 24,795*. C/ P2 b5 K1 ]. Y" u
*下三门好。
9 z& i, ]( Z! p$ Q& M五人打 下注次数 总下注额* R8 A+ R2 m9 h0 |- d) R& a
你下一门 33 16,520
* j! Y' u8 O$ ?6 K8 A你下二门 29 21,170
$ m) Y7 e4 f  c4 z/ \9 j: x你下三门 25 21,375*& g$ @6 ]  i+ L" J6 ?( s) i8 u
*下三门好。
3 X5 Q" ^! G& y# ]$ M! L综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。2 d6 i; e) ^3 e+ E* \# E
注意「上限以内」为前提。
, h6 E8 J2 M" i- `9 c! L如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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