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[lastpost] => 2775566 比特币的反弹失败：结构性转变还是暂时的挫折？（转） 1761095155 jackcool1011
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硬币的两面是运气和风险。8 f4 G5 A# ?. b) Z
运气和风险都是长尾事件，或者是个人投资者无法控制的不可预见的事件，对回报影响很大。
9 K( I$ Q H3 z& ~4 o5 K* u
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聪明的投资者非常注重降低风险，并会分散和/或对冲他们的投资组合。 ( s5 [4 M1 R. o# A
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% Q* M7 R: o5 D4 f然而，运气也会对回报产生同样的影响。世界上最成功的人非常幸运，在正确的时间出现在正确的地方。! E; A8 \0 S6 n# v2 k
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例如，比尔•盖茨认为，如果他不在高中学习计算机知识，他就不会创造微软。* S# a! b0 ]& Z \9 m& A& j! g3 [
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这些随机的运气往往会扭曲投资者的认知，使他们更倾向于幸存者偏差，导致他们试图复制那些真正不可复制的成功。8 g6 _: x ^3 A/ P8 k
i' H$ T( z, O0 o
/ ~0 s7 B# I; s9 Z为了缓解这种情况，Morgan建议投资者尝试以他们真正能模仿的人或品质为例。, `* j, X9 [* B% h3 v5 ~. p7 r
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: ]; T, X6 o* t( W [每个人的看法就不一样吧 |
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# F; {0 D- }( Q7 o7 H' @
也是的呀，所以没运气的人注定不好 |
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8 n+ K) t1 w9 f& u
你这形容得很有道理 |
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