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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。0 n6 K( i" E8 _6 ~# X* S- M) H
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比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。. ^; e8 o, k( \; u3 Q, h% p- d- a
/ @9 ?0 O3 C& n% R% Y, E# ~
严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:+ z! [* r* P/ I* Z
# p5 m7 F) E7 D/ ^3 V) E' n2 I一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;
$ H8 a4 A; q O% E/ s3 M
: I1 ^9 b! }7 k3 C你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
3 m1 j3 S5 W3 X8 i& |% }8 \, k9 j+ q' z% j+ F. r7 n
那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。1 d; f2 f& u+ J2 F. a* K2 A
4 x6 B1 G9 {3 \8 R( D你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
6 N2 _: ?1 o( h( y- q) i4 |1 s# `6 G2 h7 P. ~+ R, ]
只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。2 [; B8 h: s# ^9 I$ i
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这是四二法则中的“二”。
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' v% s% B- J3 R. X+ [2 T当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。* _0 m( i( x7 u" ]# I! k }$ \
1 B) K, r7 l8 B7 F比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。% g9 z6 M' h& X1 {* ^$ N- S( g4 J
' h* B$ u1 a3 d不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌& H8 w7 B2 V; ^* J! N
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那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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6 l+ u8 u, V0 g" Y1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。
$ X6 y- ]/ N4 g$ N8 c, N- M( A) T' C0 V. L: a
那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
2 u" c X: ]. X& O! b" Z. f6 F1 H/ m3 s" B: F% a1 U$ R. `
这就是四二法则中的“四”。" a0 s+ ~, ?5 z, T4 ]/ A ^
2 B- z+ G6 m0 b9 V, s7 L5 ]3 U$ {6 k总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。4 Q# t: g& M9 O. b/ w) c# D. W% H3 j
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