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[虚拟币交流]
比特币重回 9 万美元大关——这会是比特币 2026 年的真正价格底部吗？（转）
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2026年伊始，市场便呈现强劲的上涨势头。$ c- g4 V* P, }% _
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ETF资金流入和巨鲸持续买入，使得市场走势基本同步，许多人称之为“协同积累”。从理论上讲，这表明市场底部可能已经形成。
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1 f& _( P# q2 _% O但数据是否支持这一说法呢？从技术角度来看，比特币 [BTC]2026 年伊始，该股上涨 2.8%，在经历了六周的盘整后重回 9 万美元关口，这进一步印证了该股可能已经触底的观点。
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如果真是这样，这9万美元的赔偿可能只是第一步。
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" J" W& m( d( d3 t) X' ~8 K从仓位布局的角度来看，这笔交易已经开始盈利了。Lookonchain 数据发现一名交易员使用 20 倍杠杆做多比特币，目前持有约 55% 的未实现收益，入场价接近 87000 美元。
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与此同时，1月2日，价值3.26亿美元的空头头寸被平仓，标志着……最大的空头清算一个月内，比特币价格正朝着 9 万美元大关迈进，这与比特币的走势相吻合。简而言之，资金流动和清算情况开始向看涨倾斜。
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现在的关键问题是：这究竟是精明的布局还是盲目的乐观？AMBCrypto 认为，区分这一点对于判断比特币能否维持涨势，还是最终沦为“牛市陷阱”至关重要。* Z) m6 l$ N0 Z# }
6 @1 W) F0 A Y$ q. M! S9 k0 v战略博弈与市场乐观：比特币的困境1 P+ v3 [. q8 j' }3 p1 x0 ~+ I
密切关注比特币的链上数据比以往任何时候都更加重要。0 K5 Z* V+ ~% G0 U
3 B4 o% v! [# A8 D t- v逻辑很简单：恐惧与贪婪指数上涨7点，几乎即将脱离“恐慌”区域。比特币的资金费率转正？这并非偶然。乐观情绪高涨，交易员们押注价格将进一步上涨。; ]# X1 b( y& m* R+ A8 @
) {- M, s- I6 q$ x2 c因此，值得关注链上数据是否支持这一观点。如果不支持，任何突然的变动都可能引发连锁反应，使指数再次陷入恐慌。此外，比特币巨鲸正在移动辐射尘埃落定的风险是真实存在的。2 J! s* [" \( [; _
6 D5 Z$ ~3 L+ i( o8 v* ?; n值得注意的是，上图突显了这种风险。. S, B' X2 A' G: [) S7 \- ] w ^
& {1 F3 y2 I9 [. D' u% r剔除交易所地址后，数据显示巨鲸账户余额实际上正在下降（图表一）。同样，持有 100-1000 个比特币（包括 ETF）的地址也呈现出相同的趋势（图表二）。
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7 A4 u( |* q. ]6 o$ K与此同时，现在就将比特币ETF视为强劲的买盘支撑还为时过早。毕竟，历史损失导致资产管理规模（AUM）下降至 676 亿美元，接近 2025 年 6 月以来的最低水平。# H5 g' u% G4 T+ N
" ~& ]3 u7 ^/ a7 X3 i综上所述，这表明仓位和链上数据之间存在明显的脱节。市场将巨鲸的动向解读为“协同积累“而且ETF仍然落后，比特币的上涨空间似乎已经暴露出来。”0 j6 H: o& i* s3 ~" U; D2 T& C, [
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最后想说的话0 \+ Q+ _4 E' X1 n* i6 {- u* h) h$ z. C1 t
尽管市场情绪看涨且资金费率为正，但比特币巨鲸的余额仍在下降，ETF 的表现也滞后。) Q& Y8 c7 r5 [# k* n" ]& Z
尽管市场乐观情绪高涨，但结构性支撑疲软，这波上涨行情看起来像是一个典型的牛市陷阱，这使得底部理论受到质疑。7 h* h, A4 L& y, k( h/ m7 q; t
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这哥20倍杠杆都敢上，心脏是真大，不过现在这势头看着确实有点底部的意思了 |
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