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押注09诺贝尔文学奖 Dubo公司忙坏了
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我的心得是，预测诺贝尔文学奖不需要太在意作品，浏览作家的履历通常比细读其作品更有效。从丘吉尔开始，诺贝尔奖就几乎从未颁给过纯粹的文字工作者。 ' d) z8 {' L, k/ s
! \: F _% @9 Y 瑞典学院是这个世界上为数不多的行事神秘、无法预测的评奖机构之一。每年到此时，该院主持的诺贝尔文学奖都会引致一场不大不小的猜谜游戏。但外界的预测，十有八九都会落空，除非学院内有人事先反水——比如帕慕克那一年。 : }. z) h8 h# z
- r7 a3 J. k, s- A, [0 a 所以必须感谢英国的Dubo公司。它们做事更为公开透明，面向大众，以英镑为标准，一一开列可能的桂冠得主，甚至将平时从不读书的人也吸引进来：重在参与，请您下注。
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- _& K% [$ G& L 可惜又可气的是，庄家立博公司(Ladbrokes)的名单也没有多少技术含量，其主事者未必比参赌者读书更多——胡安·戈伊蒂索洛的名字便被张冠李戴、并且误拼成了“路易斯·戈伊蒂索拉”。
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戈氏三兄弟——何塞·奥古斯丁、胡安和路易斯皆是西班牙名作家，但以78岁的二哥胡安最具盛名，在西班牙语世界屡获大奖。由于反对佛朗哥将军的独裁统治，自20世纪50年代起，他曾长期流亡于摩洛哥的马拉卡什，对伊斯兰世界的文化和ZZ，以及欧洲对它的复杂态度有浓厚兴趣，并学会了阿拉伯语，这使他处在一个极佳的位置，来观察20世纪后期东西方之间的文化冲突，因而被公认为少数几个能在欧洲和伊斯兰世界之间架设有效桥梁的作家之一。无疑，这些都是他问鼎诺奖极有利的因素。
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5 [- ^7 Z* H$ W7 P 胡安·戈伊蒂索洛(如果“路易斯·戈伊蒂索拉”所指就是他的话)以一赔六的赔率位列第三，居于一赔四的以色列大作家阿摩司·奥兹和一赔五的阿尔及利亚女作家阿西娅·杰巴尔之后。
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( X! V1 k; H. t6 o" J& R( }9 F 戈伊蒂索洛身后，是两位一赔七、同样高产的美国作家乔伊丝·卡罗尔·奥茨和菲利普·罗斯。前十名中还有一赔八的叙利亚大诗人阿多尼斯，两位意大利人安东尼奥·塔布基和克劳迪奥·马格里斯、日本人村上春树和美国怪人托马斯·品钦，后四位皆一赔九。 # J$ \8 M7 a" [! J3 t P- t8 x
7 q3 x; ~6 t* j* d6 c1 } 这份61人的名单上还有韩国诗人高银(一赔十六)和天朝诗人北岛(一赔五十)，都是近年诺贝尔候选营中的常客。 * I! C5 y U1 g3 Z$ b3 K8 f
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名单的意义在于整理和罗列，赔率大小几乎完全不具参考意义。因为我们无从知晓评奖投票的过程。至于最为Dubo公司看好的阿摩司·奥兹，亦有许多不确定性。因为在任何时候，颁奖给以色列作家都是过于大胆之举，何况目前中东时局颇为微妙：右翼在以色列当政，巴以和平进程陷入僵局，内塔尼亚胡ZF刚刚批准了新的西岸新定居点计划。
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说老实话，我的心得是，事先预测或事后认同诺贝尔文学奖时，不需要太在意作品，浏览作家的履历通常比细读其作品更有效。事实上，二战之后，至少从丘吉尔开始，诺贝尔奖就几乎从未颁给过两耳不闻窗外事的纯粹的文字工作者。这造成了诺贝尔文学奖非文学化的争议，却也是它长久保持世界第一大文学奖的道德高位、使自身及其得主广受尊重的原因所在。否则多这个奖有什么用？ 4 \- h% M5 M( u g
b, D# l {: M [9 @7 F 天朝出版界高度热衷于追逐诺贝尔文学奖得主，但多年来的经验告诉我们，读者对大部分作品都不买账。不要怪罪读者，因为这些书大多本属小众读物，在欧美市场上同样如此。丹·布朗的新书两周可以卖出200万册，算这笔账，二十个诺贝尔奖得主加在一起，也抵不上一个布朗。 |
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