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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑, s: N7 }, L; S$ u' X
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k/ A2 Z; P; b4 o# ~) q& b
$ x2 K. U% Z1 w8 ]- sG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率). o {* K8 i F D. S4 l7 b6 e7 ?
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
6 ~$ g! y6 |1 j9 ?/ E$ }' S/ D
# z; K: ?% d$ E: S& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
7 O4 {; g8 k; S, W3 J0 N! |. ~+ }" H; |( u既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
# m6 L: ~1 R+ Q$ P- W# J& @7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
" W3 R6 N, }: _, f4 f% k- `0 U* L做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
( A$ ^, |* n$ K& `; n" Q; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d9 I* q& P: D4 r, @6 X8 m: x6 R J
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n$ ]7 V* q: h9 ^
& G2 K, z/ s' E(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 . u: b; }1 q ?) m% G& u C
) I5 m( j- [! w5 J9 V# ](3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
+ M5 q' ]1 W! \& L8 n
6 L. l a% A% g1 N3 Y" i(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 " z' Q: q, i& g7 o5 A, ]! `% B. N
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _, j1 s( a6 p Y+ c. H7 {
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
2 b+ \$ b. t4 Z+ L3 \8 U+ I% k5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
1 Q% J& c |/ ?# oS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
8 j P# G( ~1 G8 R
# f. j! a5 ?1 wS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
3 L9 F0 n) v( V9 P: L, S9 Z3 e% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s1 w4 B1 z) i, V% R! K
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
. m* ]( Q7 s C6 ?9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j4 e5 R) e; D n4 H9 K4 a2 r
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
: q- O% [6 p. j" I' I) |; ?8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v; I' v y) t) P0 v4 J& H+ ?& }- k* {
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
1 v9 F0 J0 j1 b" y5 {- z3 G( p4 c" u2 y9 \" w: Y" K
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
1 R! D/ q' Q' H" S
* b# {, t. j" B! o! X$ x& j4 v1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q. k6 L' n+ B U7 s2 U
1 A6 U- D' ?4 ~1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 k9 g) V- b. p2 z! }
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r9 i5 K7 C& v# i" \2 Q( U
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T7 I5 t6 k% l; j7 G0 B6 N% @) i
0 D# S( \3 l# K" g2 K类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
( B- v- x: X+ _7 n% U |
! I: c$ q; j5 u! o6 f' YS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 8 x4 H7 y g/ y! _3 C( E
8 n* N' v6 R! P( n% Y; H
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s* Y, X5 I$ g' e1 P1 M
; m' V% T, u, P% O
1 ^& {) B/ q7 WS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 & Y1 V0 K& s! ]5 c
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
& X( ]5 R+ Y2 n7 m+ oS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
/ p# U W+ d+ Q- K( X' w: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~/ @0 M8 t" t& z$ Y. g
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
4 M& ^! _8 h2 E% v7 ^# O7 n* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \5 h! w9 A$ r. I; u
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 : F7 e( W* h( O: r; L! o5 t0 M7 s
) q( ], k9 L T& t
0 N8 z9 {. G% kB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 + b/ G* l: \+ E; D7 K+ q
3 ?& K' a1 H' T; R8 u( |6 Q2 w0 t( O
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 h" I2 @2 \ w/ J5 g I
! s$ G. o1 K' d7 `% s+ |于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?$ H# v9 V0 k2 U4 d. h$ b- U
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
2 t9 f/ b( p6 u, L V4 K) v! wG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M! p, [! c# s2 g( x
+ D$ n) P# X# M7 ~2 S" b0 I: o; _( v
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 4 P e% h$ ~% a# o* ]0 V' ?9 `
: B4 n/ g# D$ T! p1 c$ F5 ~) m8 f( QG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
! x! X' G" V! |" [( t8 v2 m1 P' O. {! h$ a5 i1 R) u% |4 v
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
7 A5 M& A# Y! ~7 E! e' d0 ^6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
4 O$ C2 U1 ~' A) t" E; m通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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