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[lastpost] => 2774814 比特币11万美元,加密VC们却快没了(转) 1760815373 中大奖
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势; p. k0 M3 A5 r7 G1 A) A
! J3 A+ E2 O/ T2 F过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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4 o; [) v4 y' o- ]/ S2 @PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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4 M4 F6 X/ X. k0 E- i% FCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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$ {) g7 b4 c/ o2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期5 f: f' E5 c' S' J
' S) h I+ l, e: G当前持仓成本:8 j# h# d6 L2 c( _& I
4 B* \. ^- I4 B5 g0 y机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
/ ] K* H# Y$ t6 l( V3 u! O0 b: S
% A$ V! C. S& ~/ w! d, W3 h微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;% r* u1 M3 Z3 ~0 T) }
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。, N1 J- P* D$ g0 b- s0 f, k4 j
9 j" V, h3 h+ X/ q. W! Z比特币价值回归:. m6 \ E. t" `/ O
/ g {+ ?6 G( \/ U8 T2 H) M2 G市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。' p7 h8 q' k- K/ H/ n2 U
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。4 ?7 R9 W* x% F' O8 e" l( C: F7 t
% D5 B1 L" f; O8 h8 a9 L' X加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
6 q; W' a/ r6 W! |2 ?9 t6 d2 d
2 Q. o( F" Q6 S1 `9 M) ^3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:4 v6 I' a* Y8 P
- f# W6 H, e( @* u9 T/ |虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
; b) x, k. Y q& D$ ?- ~" \: G5 m( P9 ]( c3 X! X6 s5 h1 U
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
3 b+ P. X' r1 \$ C1 ~" e
9 r$ @5 I* r/ X+ LBTC:: M4 t' |. |% y i" e# r( P3 n$ ]: u
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
& Y# j: d R1 m3 Y9 i, T3 r$ F' u$ [" B2 l5 j+ E# T9 d+ P6 o6 _
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。/ j# H1 t4 Z; s2 g" w9 D( ~& X
; v6 f' b0 y6 R9 e# X& HSOL与XRP:: R; p+ g9 a; G# {
# a* _. D1 G; v oSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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- [% X0 _. Z% V- V其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。$ C( l1 L+ y; V
% Y" C/ O6 ^) S- I: ~$ |, Q山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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9 q/ k* F: @6 y5 j7 k6 a9 c1 k4. AI赛道与新兴项目9 W8 P) C O) B7 `+ _7 e
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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2 h/ ~: O5 W8 k! A: E* |; x蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
9 b7 G* ]3 k9 H0 {; O7 m# F3 I; E2 S8 M
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。! e" ~5 B' O0 D. @
, G+ O, s5 Q( G- g; X" ?+ i) z市场展望
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+ g# _. K, a4 H/ O' @9 f随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。, m0 R% {3 T3 ^) s, o' B& Q
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