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以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。
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) B+ i: g/ x. O. s$ E; j毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。/ q* L% D/ f1 _/ g$ \. F
! P v3 Q9 c1 h% [要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。, g6 n. D, L* X. o: S
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧( O0 i" r! z6 @
有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。) f1 C& e4 x9 s' T$ ~
5 m8 Q( Y- L- l0 _% i0 Z2 X8 r该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。
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ETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。
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; n) y8 R' {0 I# j5 s1 X- J但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。
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随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。
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1 o; t2 f" l5 P7 ]( e; F, H @快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。
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因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。/ }* G u, A7 `- u# ~7 D2 w
* r' [ X$ s6 h3 a8 I4 s# |但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？( z, _; f8 O- L! R& A5 q' ^
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ETH 奠定了坚实的基础9 x# a6 C+ W3 u% J W7 G2 X
以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。, p; n; i' i; d- G
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至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。+ b3 X0 J0 _6 t
; i l/ M- B5 t来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。' `, A6 Q: W6 V9 E# ?; E- W. M1 f+ ^
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有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。" N7 H1 O$ t$ M* [- ~- }9 ~
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事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。
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6 I! @. z) K s% Z这种分歧很重要。$ `7 M2 p6 o9 m) w; z: g# U. p
# k( j" E) _! F+ k将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。9 p9 L( Q: f4 l1 X; M
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