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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率! q% |+ `2 J$ N: H$ a9 ~
% J4 g7 g0 ]8 `* d" O H3 n( |$ m9 {
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . z- z+ w! d. m. x' X
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# _9 Z2 L" @" I- D9 s, i6 [, Q
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( ] A, K6 i0 r; k3 s+ }( `以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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# f c. z) H% w; i2 V& O! h盈利可能性6 l+ R5 h z+ F: k; A* h* J
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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3 @6 e- m$ R, D! t增值$ d! q+ I' x# B& C
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 O' e$ N; X/ C3 J4 E
: {& N0 k' a7 k9 P. y! g4 {* z, M你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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$ `5 U L- d9 v8 W6 L( ja) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
7 A( u% O. J. a7 {! I' ^/ k/ k! F4 X$ ^9 D& q( ]
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么) z! O9 `2 u* i w
& P2 s2 b4 _- f1 Q" o40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 f* Z# n* ~) K7 O G
60%的机会你会一无所有
3 E' W- I x# [8 X, W1 ~预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% V6 i9 A; H. l5 j1 G. t% b& l: ?( ^由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。. {0 T# N/ C5 }' r5 x0 g+ K
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基于增值的投注
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, [& X, O( f. y" W1 W& A/ A: r4 {凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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- A1 b: c' c: T% D6 }0 F. \5 p公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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4 K; `9 E0 j5 g. t& @4 qA=博彩资金
; n3 J! E& P% x1 |5 d0 `P=获胜机会. N# m, n; d+ R+ v; H; p
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金); z- v. S2 k* l0 U/ N3 {! s
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。" y ~, g; B) c$ Y' X
1 L. I9 {3 T; V' F好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。# u. q: q7 F, C
8 k* ?& B' P, [- H0 [1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)% V$ Y: q" }( r, [6 W! f
$ `) l) d. ~/ H( i. `& UA=0: `: {6 j" G: ~1 p# V
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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: S( m3 R. r2 T1 N; s( \2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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3 T1 j. q( W& dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)5 s: C* Y5 v3 n- ^) z: q/ @3 w
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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, d. a9 h1 s- Y' WA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1). J) R( f# ^7 @" l$ X
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A= -0.2 5 Z% o" C7 p1 }2 {- M9 b3 O- D
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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- a- q( P9 K0 S- g1 R第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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