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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ! m$ o1 v( C8 d" Y% J. A1 q
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/ p" s1 y5 ?1 X只跟踪一个联赛1 V# h/ p" A4 d) I8 i1 a0 O3 M
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔# W& ~% B4 D; g( P5 T- B7 s

4 Y8 K: A( b( P+ v  v* ^三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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. F4 m3 ]6 B# |& o& E. t偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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  V$ ~4 z/ j# x5 B方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）0 U. @! s  ^8 s9 p$ L% C6 l# D
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，7 [5 M& O  E6 _& a# H1 z- ?

- V; ^+ T; `  _6 g8 H  V- h4 \就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目2 |+ T" K! O  N# `& K5 R

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，* T# u* p$ ~. _. z: i6 L$ e$ d5 R
* D  _- J4 F+ E' d
而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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8 _2 O; f$ r/ _; o- h2 _3 L) Y但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。, ~9 f* F% @4 J2 t" \0 t& }

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- F+ r3 B! e7 d理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，2 [- s0 j5 K; a) s
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& F$ a8 J; t" m- I. l6 P

+ N4 w) t3 k/ l% Y& f& l这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，% ?, I& [, _7 c" t

0 `& k6 _2 t" a2 _1 H% s/ U几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。& ~' ]! ~: L7 u# b2 i/ u" k7 \3 \
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。5 E* m2 g" H. q) B$ _
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，, F' u9 f/ I4 s0 M4 _& \4 y( ^/ W

% m7 \% Z7 t1 X) b就是回避了大的亏损，1 R3 ], i( ]4 n' i' |2 a

! z/ O" @( O+ a7 v大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，) n- @% B! C0 K( E4 P

* S, S" y1 w7 C4 K回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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