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[虚拟币交流]
首席执行官抛出炸弹为什么比特币价格在ETF后被压制(转)
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尽管行业巨头贝莱德(BlackRock)和富达(Fidelity)率先推出了具有里程碑意义的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),在其首个月的ETF发行量排名前五,但BTC的价格反应明显低迷。在这些EFT推出之前,BTC在1月11日飙升至49040美元的峰值。
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快进到今天,BTC目前的结算价为51000美元,小幅升值4.3%。这种不温不火的表现让市场观察人士感到困惑,尤其是考虑到在短短六周内,所有比特币ETF都有52.78亿美元的巨额净流入。如果Grayscale的GBTC有73.98亿美元的资金外流,这一数字可能会高得多。; _" K% Z, L! m, ]! q, t8 I
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2 j3 l/ p& J1 U, X) z炸弹发现5 m2 d7 h# u, C- B
然而,CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju现在可能已经找到了对最近几周比特币价格走势产生更大影响的“真正”原因。Ju的分析强调,在比特币ETF现货获批后的几周内,超过70万比特币转移到了主要由矿工使用的场外交易台,按当前价格计算,相当于约356亿美元。
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他分享了下图,并表示:“在比特币ETF现货获批后的过去三周里,70万比特币已转移到矿工使用的场外交易台。”这一披露引发了对此类大规模转移对比特币市场动态影响的重新评估。! @; n% r+ K5 C
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BTC OTC交易|来源:X@ki_young_ju3 w1 g4 m: R$ S7 i
Ju后来稍微更正了他的说法,并解释道:“我对数据的准确性有一些疑问。这些OTC地址不仅被矿工使用。它也可能被其他鲸鱼使用。我们会让你知道是什么地址导致了这一峰值,”承认这些交易的复杂性和多方面性。1 \) E( I4 f! v& V" ?6 E! S3 P
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比特币场外交易机制解释: h2 [; f7 N7 n# d7 a' ?9 a1 v, k
场外交易台为双方之间的直接交易提供便利,而不像公开交易所那样,不同的参与者之间的订单是匹配的。这种交易方法可以在不立即影响市场价格的情况下处理大量比特币。
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当大量的BTC在公共交易所买卖时,供应或需求的突然增加可能会导致价格的大幅波动。通过选择场外交易,ETF发行人等大型买家可以大量积累比特币,而不会引发价格的大幅上涨,如果这些购买是在现货市场上进行的,价格将不可避免地大幅上涨。 \, a6 ~. g3 t; P% ]9 r
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1 ]; J8 F; A/ n- L1 x因此,Ju推测,新推出的比特币ETF背后的发行人正在通过场外交易台战略性地购买比特币。这种方法有双重目的:它允许这些实体通过确保足够的比特币支持ETF股票来满足ETF投资者的需求,同时减轻在公开交易所进行此类大规模购买所带来的直接价格影响。2 j7 V7 C/ u. `
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Ju的说法的本质是,如果70万比特币是在现货市场而不是通过场外交易渠道购买的,那么需求的涌入很可能会使比特币的价格大大高于观察到的4.3%的涨幅。因此,这种低迷的价格走势可归因于ETF发行人和其他大型买家对场外交易的战略使用。
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q! v9 X& R2 c9 p, e# p( n% f然而,也有一线希望。在4月份即将到来的BTC减半之后,如果矿工们只能出售目前供应量的一半,但需求仍然存在,会发生什么?此外,这种限制不仅限于矿工。
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% V- n- p3 s, P- P6 O- _# l鉴于场外交易的供应是有限的,而且可能会迅速耗尽,一旦场外交易储备被充分利用,供应冲击可能会不可避免地影响市场。当贝莱德等实体被迫在公开市场上购买比特币以支持其ETF时,比特币价格可能会迅速做出反应。* o, O) w. p; p# e
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截至发稿时,BTC的交易价格为51030美元。
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