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[lastpost] => 2657343 分析称:比特币只有12.9%流通量留在交易所(转) 1718511167 小钱儿
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美国证监会(SEC)批准了与现货以太坊交易所交易基金相关的关键监管文件。& m/ n9 y; e/ K: u! a5 R' j
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这标志着以太坊现货ETF的通过迈出了里程碑式的一步。
# Z1 \, y1 |* i: `
$ V3 V# m$ I' s7 t接下来,以太坊现货ETF要在交易所进行正式交易还需要SEC批准ETF的备案文件,才能让投资者进行交易。不过这一步的批准基本上就只是时间问题了。
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5 R& m+ v, [/ m& N* M; k想起前段时间我还在文章中表现得比较悲观,认为以太坊现货ETF的通过恐怕要等到明年如果川普能当选。/ x R) N |: O* T3 Q! v, [- V
8 a' h6 p6 O" ^5 K% A' [% \这个180度的大拐弯实在是让人应接不暇。
2 _# ^! n7 h) ~' E& U0 T3 G
{! g# u( r# t# x我们知道,现任SEC主席对加密资产的态度在这一两年公开的表现都是比较负面的。对以太坊,他多次质疑其代币发行尤其是质押收入和豪威测试有冲突。% m0 H6 e* F m9 v) E/ `7 `# }
, @: l E- T9 j; x1 D即便是面对“以太坊质押是为了维护网络安全而非纯粹的商业牟利”这类解释,他也基本不予正面回应。4 E' L Q$ U% F- W' P4 b; T" a
4 d- r) m4 \' d8 _/ \6 M2 Z, j2 L6 m因此,我此前一直认为只要他在任,恐怕以太坊现货ETF通过的希望都非常渺茫。8 \' f: ]' }6 y' ~# ^
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为什么SEC就在最近对以太坊的态度转变得如此之快呢?' t4 Y! S; x; g$ N% }
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我想来想去,只能想到这是不是主要来自ZZ方面的压力?* ]' B3 r' s j6 t8 c$ d
7 q- P) R. [7 s) a2 v+ n) ^面临即将到来的总统大选,川普已经公开表态了对加密资产的支持,而且还公开在网站上接受加密资产的捐款。
7 b8 w! N3 r) ]$ d, n
! e8 _" g) I1 g2 X2 B此举在美国年轻人中引起了不小的好感。
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面对这个压力,也或许是为了吸引更多年轻人对民主党的关注,所以SEC不得不对以太坊现货ETF的态度采取了180度的大转弯?5 ^0 R6 G( [4 Z5 e8 v" \
* ^0 T0 a9 F* y$ r$ ?$ o此外,华尔街和SEC之间的利益纠缠与勾兑恐怕也在其中起了不小的作用。2 o- g# b9 p5 y
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这些机构对以太坊现货ETF的强烈兴趣已经不用赘述了。他们为这个ETF的通过也一直在尽各种努力,贝莱德就多次在公开场合表明大力布局加密生态的决心。. f! y% H$ E' C) r! p$ g1 [
/ }3 \4 T# |- \, {) k" k这些机构为了消除现任主席对以太坊质押的疑虑,甚至在这次提交的文件中都承诺不会进行以太坊的质押操作。 b: t0 }9 i* e, d, {/ L4 S
2 i; b Q* z# Y+ q* g2 o
现在,所有的这些付出都有了回报。- a! h N" f, C+ y
: f: s8 X5 T' D2 E7 d3 R* v0 k. E f我曾经对接下来这轮牛市中以太坊币价可能的表现列出过三个看重的要素:$ V6 \' }4 F6 U h4 b
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以太坊生态中能否爆发出创新的应用生态?% B! [4 Y0 O0 e) _4 Y1 R1 u0 m. G1 C
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以太坊现货ETF是否能够通过?
6 ]2 Q. J- g/ H' F1 }5 H: y) T( }- e( E( w, x+ i5 `, J9 i z% ~
美联储是否会降息?
6 R1 e z' l. N- x
* K3 ?% ]1 X: E+ N; j; ~第一个要素是决定以太坊币价能否爆发的内因。这一点我们无法预判,只能持续不断地跟踪和观察生态中一切可能的新迹象和新苗头。
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+ M |$ r* g; t9 t: ~- q, E第二和第三个要素是决定以太坊币价能否爆发的外因。这其中第二个要素是外因能否起作用的开关,第三个要素是外因能否起作用的导火索。) ]3 `* d! M5 J* h' f* S2 v
: m. M. t# p" o, a8 B现在外因的开关已经彻底打开。" ^6 u# {# z4 z1 C9 k1 |/ t; `4 w( S
2 Y9 k# g- G0 f% B外因的导火索呢?还是要看数据表现如何。假如美国的通胀和就业数据接下来持续向好,降息有可能在下半年发生,届时导火索会被引燃。, L4 I- M3 T4 U, ~# F: i4 L2 H/ P
6 A c% _1 ^$ \3 G6 S在接下来的牛市中,如果降息能够发生,以太坊的币价达到1万美元还是有希望的。而如果以太坊生态还能爆发出创新的应用生态,那币价完全有可能创造更大的奇迹。8 Y; Z# x8 E# T
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