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[lastpost] => 2761335 比特币跌破11万，传奇交易员示警：牛市可能走到尽头 1756697393 AOU1888
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当前离线
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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" [! u3 v/ O, h' h值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。% u: s: a3 @; n
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。( ?5 X% O4 h& f* J3 d6 p
: n5 q/ m6 p9 Y4 N宏观信号依然支持
7 ]: F' L) _ \0 y" ?% p- p0 Q美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
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5 T6 O8 T! Q% \3 q6 g6 J, S该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。+ R2 B- g A- _) Q( S
' l4 W9 h1 \7 D6 [& G6 J- H5 A2 D从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
$ I% ~9 Z7 h2 t0 t3 e, h/ p! f7 X" J3 I0 U) X
市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。6 S. c, N- d; n w
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
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他补充道，- g7 E7 D/ w2 l# p
1 Y9 @9 M. m2 U A; G( \# V* ~6 D- K“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”* S+ Q; M5 A1 ]" @9 h4 ~+ u5 w; M# T
' {( C1 \5 ]) ~( P. ?7 Z t% _2 N韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。. p; W9 g' _ ]8 D
: H4 x4 n2 S' U# H他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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" c# ^" Y! S( a8 [$ F# e7 c亚洲比特币市场再度走强
8 w H# U, e- A5 \2 q7 S; _! L* C亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.
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! Q5 v6 N8 B% {+ n" Z此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。$ M- ]) ?. H' {7 Z' l+ O1 |8 Q
9 ?( s1 Z6 x* t2 M然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。. E. t2 E7 @- H& l& { U
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当前离线
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总在线: 14045 小时
本月在线: 11 小时
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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当前离线
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总在线: 13303 小时
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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总在线: 29 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
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当前离线
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活跃币:
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总在线: 18174 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 128 小时
本月在线: 15 分钟
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这种行情，我还是宁愿相信宏观信号，继续看涨比特币。 |
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