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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?& r4 p, u) S) e h% J
* l- z0 a, g2 O- l' N) u w会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。. x* `3 {/ H: P0 b/ i
: z+ I( f( J/ t7 P! p其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!0 \) H/ y+ R9 U7 S
$ m' J7 v1 v- `$ J首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
- a) t8 z. l, t4 D, Y+ ~; u8 r' C/ v9 m
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。( j6 m, T N4 ]# U' | V. d! f: |9 U
$ _% a3 y9 x5 u答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
2 }. K& ^! g# m6 ]6 a8 V
$ k+ w' h5 r* E6 D) \例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。1 \2 C; t6 \, E& K& a
) V, ^. P0 a& d! c& U现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
' ?5 Y( W0 Y' r* ?7 g! G3 M$ P1 U# C6 x# Q
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。, m, v% B" q/ c# ~8 k2 s& C$ o# v0 N9 I- T
5 @: `* X; Y, ?' H+ G
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
4 ^& |, J. ]% o. w+ L) d. K7 q( f* A. j) M7 k9 ~7 c. \
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。0 G. y2 L1 w( ?% z# N, ]; `
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
8 U5 Z/ r) [; f6 G. W
# @$ j! d# f. E* o接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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) c. Z. P% C, Y/ `2 e玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。6 ]9 j: |: i8 M8 Y
" Q9 g0 M, @+ F5 L- @' P+ J- U! ^
再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
4 {* _4 p3 W' w- H0 Z0 w; G& u1 P$ x- O2 U1 Y. s
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。8 b7 G7 |4 r, G* e7 X: P
6 q% N. l9 t5 x% t+ {7 J0 w
但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。4 m- k/ ^0 \% v3 l- a. g& _
2 q1 r0 C9 b9 z# |3 Z下注比例 本金结果
* K( p, m) P6 q: f4 o+ C) r6 W* s5 F4 y# M' }
0.1% 1.0019021 C1 M7 \# b( Q
+ N; t+ o$ |4 A6 Z) b: d0.2% 1.0036061 n! M9 |& m* |, _) E
. N( M& r$ ]4 }. `+ m, X
0.3% 1.005113
( k/ ]0 q7 Y5 c! J! @0 b4 [& {8 q. O+ r! J0 X+ A: R8 t* \& u
0.4% 1.0064214 P, p" r% F2 a6 D
$ j$ w4 H8 y$ G: V n7 S) I; V6 b0.5% 1.007528/ S# c p, O! t, p; |; Q
0 q& k& T2 S6 s" O/ m
0.6% 1.008435
( ~( s' P w |! n* I" n
, C/ m/ P. l; R2 I0.7% 1.009142
' u4 H1 x q$ p% H( h8 T" o3 P. ?% [& L7 m
0.8% 1.009646
: O/ Q3 d8 k% v. A! P1 \3 G+ ]0 v2 J8 Z- |7 @
0.9% 1.009949
% O7 j @0 K5 p9 D9 u/ Y2 Y6 C9 d7 B2 ^* @
1.0% 1.01005- \6 P$ _2 n; Z v
' F, g4 e( M' A( s! j4 h6 T; v5 D
1.1% 1.009949
, X R6 k. B" [/ H' R( {; f; `" F+ C* f& G* D4 e# V- S
1.2% 1.009646
0 s2 \2 h- j g% v z4 ]$ f
& F3 ~4 O. P3 m( S8 i1.3% 1.009142
9 H2 t5 U) V1 c; j7 y6 i
6 [! _$ ]* H' ?( E1.4% 1.008435
, n+ Z+ }2 \0 M# D) h# S0 ]/ m& G7 B# E3 I# E7 Y) r
1.5% 1.007528' O. J( W/ B. ^$ f
# `2 E8 u" L% r7 P1.6% 1.00642
* i; G2 L/ h# c1 q o2 [9 O. O
1.7% 1.005112
) e& x8 q0 w' B; ] e
4 q; Y/ a8 j& S) H) \4 o! C1.8% 1.003605
* I* G) \1 ~& t6 b
0 w4 G" u0 i1 M1 A- H1.9% 1.0019
# {+ C+ |$ ^, P. }2 @
- l. J& k' e9 M+ x& D0 [5 @9 R: M2.0% 0.999997
. j8 u7 L8 _# [! T/ I0 I$ B2 @) v
$ s! S, n% R6 I9 x: R) X2.1% 0.997899
3 _: ~% B* ]8 Z4 ?6 a
) V& l+ N# j: ~- I+ B- X# D* x5 V' O2.2% 0.995605
, D# e9 Z& D6 ]- N. B/ ~, M+ ?% v) p7 r7 E$ M% R6 a) Y
2.3% 0.993118
5 h& f" \6 \4 T2 R$ E
3 { v3 Q) \$ W1 s' e7 X2.4% 0.990439
0 W6 N6 |, Z% U# {6 P
' E" z( P$ L, D8 r2 @2.5% 0.987569
+ j1 G0 V0 B9 [; _) G5 L
) w& t- g/ {; Y; ~4 r/ j# S# {7 ?2.6% 0.98451: G, s4 ?2 K I, H
" W& r: v+ h$ x5 P l2.7% 0.981264
: L" ]0 N7 p3 {, P3 F, B- c- ^! |) H
+ G4 I& o2 w t3 I7 ^. [0 Q1 d2.8% 0.977833" H4 b4 Z# E! ^) R6 A5 a
+ V% A: y% |8 x. N: n
2.9% 0.974219
3 g. R" p6 E0 C3 u/ \
& J2 D% ~. A+ c; g& c% G3.0% 0.9704242 M1 L$ m) s5 F" C, ]
9 a% C5 B: t4 \0 S- R% e B
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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, d5 r0 j- ?. O' w4 J1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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, G3 D# v% B E2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
# n' `- S2 F8 m- Q
# M t- [( q& P) T7 v! x3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈1 e* r- D) b- q; t M+ d
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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* d* u V8 s" I" A& y3 c4 ^然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。5 Y- @" r/ d+ B; j N( b \- W* E
7 O1 Q$ [- |: d$ O以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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