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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?7 m' |9 F+ n6 g' C) H0 _9 [9 l- L2 d
% N' V! {, ]5 H* x3 N7 o) w- u' z4 p
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
4 ^5 A/ v# N a4 `& I! [2 D' l8 y( ^5 H7 a! `) k- Q
其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
1 k. p+ K: Q7 L2 }* f
, B% @( A! T! i- N- Y4 k j/ u4 ~首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?! @6 P% g7 D9 y% o5 X& Q7 J
2 ]' S( ^/ L; w6 l7 L/ O0 N2 i8 M; }请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。1 R) u# n- \ P8 w# U. x' l/ ^* {, _2 p
) X# e' \. } _" r+ ?# b7 R* ~答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!$ i5 S# {- Y* ]* H' n8 u7 \
: S2 m" ]8 h+ M y: S0 r' l& {例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
" v( ^/ V1 l8 Z# G& _
0 U( e+ q G4 D1 N {& w8 G* ~) e# A现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
b7 l& G0 @7 w0 N! _
K/ D, o1 ~' u8 x R; M我们先来看一个0和的游戏。( R6 K& [6 r3 x% h0 A) @
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
" E( F& g/ H! @1 J$ O0 V! }, F0 ]# L* o5 ]2 a6 L: i4 G4 D. M
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。& z3 Q! ^8 m& u# B3 v8 c) @# E) y
9 o# o' K9 Z6 M g0 p9 G; O这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
3 _' r1 o3 [0 B% G7 r
) s" w) w, v8 w# r2 n5 G6 \) Z接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
' x$ b% w' x {5 k5 _8 W
. I& E6 @2 m4 [2 H玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
% ^5 H1 V2 ~. r. M; A/ v' B8 E3 q: C3 H! ^) i2 v1 b+ q* F" z, C
再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
7 a8 |7 `5 v7 U4 U3 v3 u4 K; k5 G! b4 [- L+ l
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
, S3 ?2 X/ f N/ t$ K1 w! a3 ]) t
但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。# [+ x: D. ?% Q5 g# @6 r8 O
) e7 \1 f1 t# ^. M b9 ?下注比例 本金结果
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2 m/ V3 T, r- i6 u, ?/ ?0.1% 1.001902
' s: d3 p) n5 J0 G4 i! \2 v T% m3 J% a+ J/ J
0.2% 1.003606
4 V0 X( ^; U9 e. b4 \- G4 a+ c( Z0 Y- m5 j2 u; x' O7 X8 t
0.3% 1.005113
. r" h4 a- R9 \8 x9 e; Z/ |" G: c2 K0 x5 E
0.4% 1.006421( f7 B) t7 {" a* ?& d F$ z( \$ R; O
6 \% x9 I# i9 D9 q/ t. f0 `
0.5% 1.0075286 f; h6 j- k3 D0 W4 e6 v7 _! o5 }9 ^6 u
6 {) Q1 L" E0 U2 h; A6 L+ Z+ F- s
0.6% 1.008435
- G. C8 Y" G+ m9 r3 o
2 E% C& X) Z! r7 } }( d0.7% 1.009142
/ y' m, G7 C9 ?; y- j
. r+ T {+ P Q B0.8% 1.009646
) U% f, K. B4 o
5 b! n, h* ~& S' A2 o/ p0.9% 1.009949
9 a4 m: g2 f- \. ?' H. R V# ?% t4 r/ S% y6 _
1.0% 1.01005' [+ c1 e4 z9 m9 S Y# M" h; t
! q/ C, L+ K/ k' y* g G1.1% 1.009949$ e% m. z% |8 ?0 I
7 L3 E+ q. c8 P1.2% 1.009646! K x% I5 p& \+ V
( H2 D8 b! i2 k) a, u1.3% 1.009142( ?: w$ `8 J" ?- L( ?! a" |
) _' ~% P. r0 d- t& `1.4% 1.008435$ T# @1 q: {3 q) w
1 W( k& ]( X Y7 V
1.5% 1.007528: v9 `8 r! a" @9 H, Y7 a' T
( n& L6 P# ^9 z5 s5 x9 @8 L- ^4 E
1.6% 1.00642" V3 x b4 Y4 R5 o6 C e4 A
$ \7 e5 e$ p7 O# y# M) H- s3 |+ z1.7% 1.005112
& D5 P9 T3 y7 b0 Y: K* X( w$ J
5 V( v& v4 s8 X' [1.8% 1.003605, i; u: m, Z* s( F& x% ^
+ a( Z! y$ \( z+ H+ q
1.9% 1.0019
O6 i/ V# T2 z: G [# }0 K1 S8 ?& u5 F( R6 s- `, O) O' u
2.0% 0.999997
V- @6 d6 g7 e! T9 E+ o% d, K! o3 K) J, o
2.1% 0.997899: h2 ]. z' {- y5 K/ Q0 Z# v
4 l# Z' ~0 ?. i2.2% 0.995605
* x2 W; A) h% f+ E+ g
' b' g5 ~2 B C9 G# Y& P2.3% 0.993118
, b4 E1 @& t! Z) O+ e" k1 p9 j/ ?! L6 u C" }) f% z
2.4% 0.990439
) E+ R! v, l* ~4 s
$ l, c5 |; k/ ]; o2.5% 0.987569- F$ ]8 Y2 v a( l; f
' P- Y$ K& h5 V
2.6% 0.984518 Z& |/ _: r. i, a1 ?
5 x5 R8 d* O% k! U5 @, z: z3 ?2.7% 0.9812649 n7 I, h( B0 ?" o' e% b
3 E, ~$ H1 b$ Q. \2.8% 0.977833
2 Y+ L5 G* z; V# ?* t7 E
% X% f! n6 P6 V) Q' x/ Y2 v2.9% 0.974219
- o1 T2 \( y/ O! h9 |! {1 y+ B
+ Y0 W; D+ l1 ]2 ?1 g v6 P0 i3.0% 0.970424: a* B; ~" G' j6 A" Q1 h* E2 }# }& B6 _
3 r9 X5 g% e* C2 R4 {
从上表可以得到一些结论:2 Y" W+ x! X! d( D) G! t4 ~
" [; a- X. o5 E# \7 i0 Q, j8 x! \- H+ x
1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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6 G: w" o! b9 p1 n7 r& [: j0 m2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!5 P1 l5 P( X% T: y5 P
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈0 ~! C$ n$ m+ i7 E% K" A# D" W& I
; _* l5 Q* B3 e, o6 t凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...9 J" a8 z* k: Z1 U* S
5 Q$ B' k, ` v; r然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。% P* {9 M9 ^& u8 E# m
6 A$ I% v* b8 j; r( X& C以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。8 b/ ]9 Z! X) {; F
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