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[lastpost] => 2657288 伊朗的OpenSea用户声称他们被禁止进入NFT市场(转) 1718680720 wodezhuanyong
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当前离线
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总在线: 12117 小时
本月在线: 29 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
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! C0 r+ c% K, X6 B* Y7 B总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,5 ]) h" r. `! t. s/ k
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方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。! q3 M: }5 U, y3 h
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牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,
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Fidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
3 Z: X# `: U! l; k; Y0 T+ C+ w8 i) A
9 h! o3 \& T% O0 S4 a, N内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
4 w2 R6 r6 q7 C- h" a( d5 F. G" o& U% w6 g& C; o5 { W e
宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿: o6 k4 O' L6 k0 i" h
3 [) U- M/ P4 A4 J枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
( `" r& [4 O' t% M" v3 H5 w( C! c2 z, {
k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成! D2 l0 Y2 L g+ f' C; g, h
3 |2 @* F$ c" Y H! L震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死 g1 l1 y7 Y, t- c1 O e
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叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了
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避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确
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定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时
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- c+ X, ^, s$ M3 b* p9 X- j$ H间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认, I! O+ J5 M# P
5 S9 P: J2 u/ i( g8 ^为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。; {6 f* k$ z. M- V6 f. n5 A
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从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑7 w L5 e# N2 e4 P, }6 U
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,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑7 r: W1 l3 Y+ C
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位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,
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EMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。! ]; R3 g$ Q# ]4 H' U" X
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
5 }( v6 S8 S W K: l0 }: b+ f: V& b+ b, N* J& P
认为比特币至少会去次6万。; ]) }: ]$ [9 T
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7 u! H2 C0 l* a' y6 s' b
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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当前离线
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总在线: 9450 小时
本月在线: 31 小时
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