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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊的涨势看起来比 2020 年更健康，但仍有一个担忧（转）
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以太坊在资金面较为平静的情况下攀升至 4.200 美元上方，但 4.700 美元的阻力位仍然至关重要。库存流量比 (S2F) 和 MVRV 的飙升凸显了市场波动性加剧和获利回吐风险。8 k+ g# B0 n. t" Q8 J
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以太坊[ETH]已突破 4.2 万美元。9 m& H# v4 _1 _( G2 K* _- T+ c+ T
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但与 2020 年和 2024 年初的反弹不同，当时融资利率过热至 0.05 以上并引发大幅回调，而当前的突破是在接近于零的平静融资下展开的。. _$ t3 k3 `7 |! \4 |
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这种动态表明，这一走势主要是由现货驱动而非杠杆驱动，这使得反弹看起来更健康，且不易出现突然清算。
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) O# W6 V3 N! }6 h0 S- `然而，分析师警告称，如果融资利率迅速升至 0.05 以上，可能会引发强劲的抛售压力。$ Y, h# Y. k) x" A# n! U
0 i/ P G& e2 Q因此，平静的资金仍然是当前看涨势头可持续性的关键信号。
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4.7万美元阻力位逼近1 i( U8 \% l6 `, J \8 r3 P
ETH 目前已在 +1σ 活跃实现价格水平（接近 4.7 万美元）附近遭遇拒绝，这一门槛在历史上标志着过热状况和强劲的抛售压力。; k5 c, |* x# I J. i3 H- N* Q( n
9 o: ?% ~3 T- v8 ^6 V; b该水平最后一次被突破是在 2024 年 3 月，此后已被证明是跨多个周期反复出现的阻力区。9 y4 s3 z8 W& j0 |; E
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尽管以太坊的强劲复苏激发了看涨情绪，但接近 4.700 美元引发了人们对近期枯竭的担忧。8 C$ q* F9 A3 \4 I) Z2 ]
2 O- V6 }: U( u0 q因此，围绕这一门槛的争夺很可能决定以太坊能否延续涨势，还是在未来几周面临更深层次的调整阶段。7 o+ _3 M4 T2 K! C
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以太坊未来波动性如何？
, j. H2 z' N* R, _) k: S) Z以太坊的存量流量比已大幅攀升至 47.7，创下数月来的最高水平之一。
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这种突然的[激增]表明供应动态收紧，但也表明市场状况可能过热。
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从历史上看，存量流量比的急剧变动往往先于波动性加剧，要么加速看涨突破，要么引发获利回吐事件。& {1 X$ I( Z0 w e( Q
. h0 W* Z% E+ ]4 j因此，虽然当前的飙升凸显了 ETH 日益增长的稀缺吸引力，但它也是一个警示指标，表明如果抛售在阻力位附近加剧，极端的供应侧压力可能会带来显著的短期价格波动。- q4 t0 X1 c6 @# |- k u6 P
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当前的势头需要维持
# c1 V1 H J* K& Z. v! l$ aETH 的 MVRV 多空差值稳步上升至 25.69%。因此，长期持有者获得的利润远高于短期参与者。7 G, b0 \6 r$ c2 f$ m) r
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这种不平衡表明了老一代人的信心，但随着利润变得越来越有吸引力，它也为潜在的抛售压力创造了条件。
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然而，ETH 在此次上涨中表现出的韧性凸显了整个网络的坚定信心。
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此次反弹的可持续性可能取决于长期持有者是否选择进一步增持或开始在更高水平分配头寸。
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以太坊会在 4.7 万美元时崩溃或弯曲吗？
+ z4 b5 |4 V2 g# N: L* h以太坊的平静资金表明反弹将更加健康，但在 4.7 万美元附近反复受到拒绝表明阻力依然强劲。
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库存流量比飙升和 MVRV 盈利能力上升凸显了看涨潜力和获利风险。" a5 O+ R( r# V8 l* t) M( p
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因此，关键的考验在于 4.700 美元的门槛——ETH 能否果断突破该门槛将决定市场的下一步趋势。
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