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[lastpost] => 2785297 比特币重回9万美元后，接下来是圣诞节还是圣诞劫？（转） 1764382321 caoch
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9月14日晚间，比特币、以太币等加密货币集体跳水下跌。截至22：19，狗狗币下跌5.24%，瑞波币下跌3.34%，以太币下跌1.41%，比特币下跌0.36%。6 y: T/ i* g/ u. v$ d; ^* e
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# z/ X. u, f8 Q5 I0 T8 J Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有超12万人爆仓。5 u. D: A( H8 T. I( G/ ~( F8 h
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7 U8 v7 e4 a& y/ i9 z 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，美联储将于当地时间9月16日至17日召开货币政策会议，9月18日，美联储将公布利率决议。CME“美联储观察”的数据显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。9 S0 d1 U/ J; G0 `
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据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月11日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增长0.4%，经季节性调整前同比增长2.9%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI环比增长0.3%，经季节性调整前同比增长3.1%。# S+ f: _3 ~3 x8 |3 [9 z& B# g+ N& W
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尽管美国8月CPI基本符合预期，但初请失业金数据意外爆冷。美国劳工统计局9月11日公布的数据显示，截至9月6日当周，初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，为2021年10月以来最高，高于前值23.6万人和预期值23.5万人。
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+ E6 E' \# M8 K C 在CPI和初请失业金数据公布后，10年期美债收益率跌破4%大关，美元指数走低，美股再创新高。
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# q/ w5 e1 Q% n/ \& B( o 随着初请失业金人数跃升至近四年高位，美联储货币政策重心进一步倾向就业。这巩固了美联储降息预期，市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景，这意味着美联储或将在今年余下的每次会议上都进行降息。6 y% G! T7 `' Z1 R$ W4 X( x! A
( V x+ q, x1 e. L2 X 尽管市场普遍预期美联储年内将降息3次（每次25个基点），但客观来看，这一预期仍存在过度乐观的风险。董忠云提醒，若未来因关税传导、供应链调整等供给侧因素推升通胀，叠加降息操作的刺激作用，导致美国通胀出现超预期反弹，则美联储货币政策的宽松幅度可能不及市场预期，甚至不排除放缓降息节奏或暂停降息的可能。进一步来看，若降息后对美国就业的提振效果有限，同时通胀在供需双重作用下再度抬头，美国或将面临经济放缓与通胀居高并存的“类滞胀”风险。一旦出现此类情形，美联储的政策空间将显著收窄，市场也可能迎来更大波动。+ q% @% b2 F- H, N2 L
3 I2 V. U# B! G 未来仍暗礁密布，尽管9月降息已经板上钉钉，但在数据依赖模式下，9月之后的货币政策路径仍未成定数。5 |# F9 O; B# a% Z! F- |3 q9 T2 M: v) g
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今晚比特币跳水，一夜12万人爆仓，又是惊心动魄的加密货币大戏啊 |
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卧槽这波血洗太狠了，爆仓的兄弟们今晚怕是要睡不着了 |
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