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英国金融数据提供商 CF Benchmarks 宣布了更新的# g: [9 [" v. @. P; M' R
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比特币& H- n+ Y# ~/ R
6 F, }' b3 d# k& D% s（BTC）的预测，表明在与更广泛的市场趋势的历史相关性重新显现的情况下，该数字资产的价格可能上涨。该公司为60多种金融工具提供基准利率，观察到宏观经济指标和行为模式的趋同，表明BTC近期将呈现看涨走势。. m0 |# W" k0 Z8 v. W$ g' s q
0 l3 U; _9 E! B0 O& Y- ? ^根据CF Benchmarks的分析，近期比特币与股票和大宗商品等传统资产类别之间的相关性有所增强，尤其是在全球市场波动加剧的时期。该公司指出，BTC与标准普尔500指数之间的30天相关性已超过0.75，达到2020年底以来的最高水平。这一发展表明，随着机构投资者对比特币的接受度持续增长，人们越来越将其视为一种战略资产而非投机资产。
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该公司还强调了美国货币政策在塑造比特币前景方面的作用。鉴于美联储暗示下半年可能降息，CF Benchmarks 预计流动性条件将相应放松，而流动性条件历来支撑风险偏好情绪和资产价格上涨。CF Benchmarks 的一位发言人表示：“比特币作为一种无收益但流动性极强的资产，可能会像股票和其他投机性资产一样受益于同样的利好因素。”% s/ W k8 r4 R, i
4 p3 g/ I; x1 ~ Y$ I4 \* D( S! T除了宏观经济信号外，CF Benchmarks 还指出，行为数据显示投资者仓位发生了显著转变。散户和机构投资者都在重新平衡投资组合，以增加对比特币的持仓，尤其是在实际利率持续为负且通胀压力持续存在的情况下。该公司的数据显示，比特币的 14 天相对强弱指数 (RSI) 已连续 20 多个交易日保持在中性 50 水平之上，这是持续买入压力的技术指标。 _7 g0 |, n% J( |5 A' \( q: V
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尽管前景乐观，CF Benchmarks 强调，该预测应被视为一个信号，而非最终的预测。该公司指出，虽然历史相关性提供了一个有用的框架，但在面对意外的全球事件或监管变化时，它们并非能够幸免。“市场依然充满活力，尽管相关性环境支持积极的前景，但投资者仍应保持警惕并进行多元化投资，”该发言人补充道。, \4 J) z# D, j3 s7 T
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CF Benchmarks看多BTC📈但也提醒别盲信预测，注意分散风险( V' I; p; x9 |$ j& m- f$ ]( Z
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