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[真人] 求教概率学高手指点。一个缆的盈利概率,和能否盈利。
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1#
我的是5手正追的缆单次投注:    5       15          40           100          240      总计400  l' k3 P( Z) F
中后盈利:    5       10          20            40            80      不计抽水
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# r# P0 g+ p( @/ }) P我算出我的方法断缆的概率为3.33333%- ]+ ]2 @' A! t
也就是说我这缆成功的概率为96.6667%7 L9 ?6 x8 t+ W1 y8 ?  k

8 g4 E3 C' \  Y3 R2 b/ p7 d但是问题来了,中的时候说不定哪口中,就怕总是中最小的。不中的时候却是亏得400
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跪求概率学高手指导,此缆能否抗过大数零和法则,最终能否盈利。
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2#
呵呵.必清代.不解释.不信可以实验.
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3#
回复 2# g35416 . F1 x$ f/ p5 t* E; K9 h0 n

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) P$ r0 T2 d1 s  {# W! ?8 I  f! [  声明下,我的打法独特,不是死追的缆。有点类似抛硬币5次,5次全与开出的结果想同,我用的是极端条件下的反向概率。3 o0 m5 X3 }( t  r8 I( v( e9 F
我已经算出断缆概率3.3%
3 T2 s# @2 P# y9 n3 I) |我只求高手帮我下,弄清无限次数下能不能突破零和。) }( J/ n* i$ C  p$ N" h
不用你考虑我怎么打,按我的数字给我算下就行
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4#
理论跟实际不一样的.再说本身网赌就是假的.何必要去算理论呢.
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我不是高手,随便说几句。假设次数为N,假设N为5,胜负结果用正负表示;0 s3 y/ G; o. t: ^) u8 }2 h' t
结局有2的五次方共计32种结果;(不计DC抽水和庄优势)
5 i6 K3 e& s  m结果1:5次全正,赢利:25 概率1/32 赢利既25/324 n& I6 W4 Z( @9 @) r0 n
结果2:正正正正负,赢利:15 概率1/32 赢利15/32* o$ M! E* R- H. i6 w3 d( u4 P
结果3:正正正负正。赢利:20 概率1/32 赢利20/32
/ `3 T% f5 X. A' N' Y1 d( h8 U依次类推-  Z7 m( W, R' v( N; \3 L
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2 u4 R/ ]3 v* D# S2 x) l结果32:负负负负负 赢利:-400 概率1/32 赢利-400/32: O: k) i' M, i

/ O0 I- m5 |) _+ p) f将32个结果的赢利值相加,刚好为零。你将实验局数N调大调小也一样
5 s* v4 Q/ m2 t& N你会发现,这条缆按概率的角度讲,赢利永远为零6 R9 d- c4 F0 l/ |( l+ r
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鄙人浅见,边玩BJL边打的字,有打错的地方谅解,意思表达到了就行!
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6#
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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7#
祝你好运:handshake
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8#
回复 5# 448443 : c) x  I, ]) _3 q  a, D, E8 n3 ~
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    {:3_46:}还说自己不是高手。。。。
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9#
谢谢大家,我已经认识到自己的错误,重新换视角考虑了。继续努力探索中。
" y# @! m7 w# M4 b. X此贴到此作废。
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10#
亮点在2楼啊,明确给你指示了还在想什么呢
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如果不计抽水 只要不改变你的打法 你打的越多越是平手
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8式缆断缆是1/36
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5式缆断缆是1/36
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说错了,是31次
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不知道怎么计亏损,但是无限次玩缆的话,应该盈利和亏损应该接近0吧,水除外。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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