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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 6 j8 X5 ^  b" j, w0 M( [0 w4 n
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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7 q' \" P+ f* Z0 T& J开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;  L8 _/ R% `9 K& o

& \* S$ t  q/ G% q* [开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/729 K3 P8 Q$ A0 ]7 R2 y

5 z# m$ }! W6 M开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72# w. V) }8 `( P& ^( H
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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- \4 x4 x) R8 ^  I加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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5 b& ]9 l  {! F/ D6 m8 ^4 v2 i! V以上,76gor, F9 E( o5 d( E/ j3 V$ d+ p
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,4 Q* [! `1 o$ T  x. w& C, N

9 G( t4 P0 V7 n# h一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,0006 M% m/ J7 H& [
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152! c- t, d' t/ N0 v
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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9 A5 o! M$ P1 ?) X7 f2 `9 ?每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,9807 F- ^1 j) f0 }  p9 b

& y3 k* ]4 ]8 ^: I唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
; c7 u8 X: D6 t% t" p0 M; K' T, r唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor   P& O7 ~- ]0 {3 }/ @0 ~

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+ X- N9 b, ^) @0 d; Y; T- c   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?+ `( [7 M' S1 m8 _% s! {
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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2 J" v4 S% }, V7 L    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,) z8 D8 E0 v$ n3 p5 r, T
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;) M: I" s8 p+ ?! }7 q% P& V% w
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:, q) t$ L' \% g" I1 w9 \  Y: v+ O

3 M" Z4 [" [4 c. P  z/ `开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
9 M" t( v8 N) [+ D0 b4 @( g: }76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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2 M2 d) K) Y# j* R% y: ~+ F9 {6 d4 ]8 E4 e6 i8 ~" N
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
. k2 _( m3 v# C; g% q1 p5 @大概是1%多点
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" }1 S* p3 e4 P. z. K! j至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏( Q5 N* K4 S% j" H3 d
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...2 {; A, T0 }, P0 ?
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?7 y- a( d; U, `4 m1 S  J
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 3 \( U$ r+ l4 _, y, g4 ~' u* j
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!0 o4 V; s7 c4 _2 ]0 z$ y* J
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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