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[lastpost] => 2785191 比特币期权到期及隐含波动率反弹：战略性入场机会？（转） 1764329499 人生如赌
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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策小分:
总在线: 12610 小时
本月在线: 30 分钟
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调整来临？今日，比特币突然跳水，此前大涨的黄金与日本股市也有所回落。
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1 b8 ]5 h1 u) w% `' L$ g; \ 截至发稿， 比特币跌幅超0.8%，跌破124000美元。以太坊、雪崩币等加密货币也纷纷走低。 _: Z& z1 q4 @; g+ ^5 u/ A1 e
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- p6 f$ L9 R# \ Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有超16万人爆仓。
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9 }7 t/ A/ p* ~, K8 G 此前比特币已连续上涨，昨日，比特币一度冲高至126199美元左右，事实上，随着美联储降息周期开启，美元持续走弱，黄金、比特币等资产纷纷被抢购。今日，纽约期金一度涨至4000美元，不过，当前已有所回落。
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此外，美国ZF“关门”持续，日本与法国政坛的变动也导致避险资产更受青睐。4 `2 ~7 {# r p% v, \
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不过，对于黄金等资产的暴涨，美国银行认为技术性调整或将来临。
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+ t6 o6 P2 J6 O& f/ ~ 美国银行分析师Paul Ciana在一份研究报告中表示，从技术分析来看，随着金价逼近每盎司4000美元关口，其上涨趋势已显现“动能耗尽”的迹象。这位首席技术策略师指出，若此趋势延续，金价可能在第四季度进入盘整或回调阶段。% r& _) K, A1 N5 U
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Ciana称：“从趋势跟踪与风险管理角度出发，目前更适合上调止损位、进行对冲操作，或减少部分多头持仓。”他进一步补充，黄金涨势可能“动能耗尽”的信号包括：当前金价较其200日简单移动平均线高出约21%——而金价在该均线# w9 u( W4 O3 Z. x; c, b/ I7 O
5 }9 i3 w/ R1 _3 {* G以上21%的位置往往容易出现峰值，若涨幅接近25%，峰值出现的概率会更高。
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: \) ^. }# @$ W/ K 在今日股市方面，虽然亚太主要股指收盘多数上涨。但日经225指数尾盘回落仅涨0.01%报47950.88点，此前一度涨破48500点。2 I6 _6 w/ p# c0 T
. b' t, Y) b# u4 T( G1 O# v' W 权重股方面，丰田汽车涨1.65%，KDDI电信涨1.44%，软银集团涨1.11%；日本电气跌2.93%，TOKYO ELECTRON跌1.57%，迅销跌1.28%。澳洲标普200指数跌0.21%报8956.80点。新西兰标普50指数涨0.31%报13531.290点。. Y* Q0 E. T1 G2 t
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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市场情绪转凉一瞬间，该来的回调还是来了。; m8 \3 d2 D, C6 o
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当前离线
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当前离线
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