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[虚拟币交流]
迈克尔·伯里和沃伦·巴菲特发出11月市场过热的红色警告（转）
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市场谨慎的两大代表人物迈克尔·伯里和沃伦·巴菲特都对11月的股市行情发出了危险信号。 伯里再次做空华尔街，而巴菲特最喜欢的估值指标刚刚达到历史最高水平。( K" e( u% ~. J7 O
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他们的举动共同发出一个强烈的警告，表明金融市场可能正在进入危险领域，而加密货币已经感受到了这种痛苦。7 r2 ^8 _/ s0 P3 F- L
! F! `7 w. @( p迈克尔·伯里迄今为止最“狂野”的13F
, |* W* w" s V1 _矮熊，化名交易员兼分析师称，迈克尔·伯里最新的13F文件是他迄今为止最疯狂的一份。这份文件比往常提前一周多提交，显示伯里采取了激进的策略。空头头寸这让人想起他在2008年金融危机之前的策略。
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根据他们的分析，伯里的交易包括卖出（看跌）合约合约期限延伸至2026年和2027年，持有数万份诸如50美元和30美元看跌期权等头寸。这意味着长期看跌的市场前景，以及为两到三年内可能发生的重大市场崩盘做好准备。
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/ @8 r s8 W3 T8 [3 w" {$ M- t市场分析师 Kashyap Sriram 指出，Burry 在 2025 年第一季度做空了市场，就在 4 月份闪崩导致数十亿美元股票市值蒸发之前。3 C5 I; F: \0 u: n; g
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“他又做空了，就在人工智能泡沫最终破裂之前，”斯里拉姆写道将当前的炒作比作童话故事皇帝的新装“人人都知道人工智能是个泡沫，但假装看不见比冒着指出它的风险要容易得多。”' c3 T* O: S/ r4 ^; U1 a- _
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伯里的策略表明他认为市场已经过度扩张。人工智能狂热这与他近二十年前次贷危机爆发前持相反立场如出一辙。
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/ e# I9 w @1 X& l; e$ C$ l! P4 f- M沃伦·巴菲特的经典警告再探* @6 V/ t) d2 u- i2 B# M* @ m% O
同时，沃伦·巴菲特的长期以来备受关注的估值指标——巴菲特指标——如今发出了自……以来最强烈的警告。互联网泡沫时代.# L ^ f% F2 H
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美国股市总市值与GDP之比已达到233.7%，创历史新高。. u# k+ J/ v$ P9 U0 J$ ?* Z; _
8 y( o' b* Z: h. g/ J! z“如果这个比例接近200%，就像1999年那样，那就等于玩火，”吉格资本表示。声明引用巴菲特的话。7 F1 x2 Y8 t$ c8 {
4 N y: i$ z& k$ _' b: l233.7%的读数表明，美国股市相对于实体经济而言估值过高。历史上，这种情况通常预示着股市将出现大幅回调或持续多年的熊市。- U9 s) E( v" J5 I' b; q' \" A* N
1 c5 I; J0 S& j7 E6 O2 M加密货币已感受到压力
7 o+ L3 V4 \2 y C$ `$ l) |6 H# n8 |加密货币市场似乎是这场危机的第一个受害者。风险规避情绪日益增强据 Coin Bureau 统计，自 10 月以来，加密货币市值已蒸发 7900 亿美元，总市值从 4.22 万亿美元跌至 3.43 万亿美元，抹去了自 2025 年初以来的所有涨幅。
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2 O6 Z9 o0 m4 y% k加密货币分析师兰·诺伊纳警告称，股市的小幅回调可能会引发数字资产的进一步下跌。
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“目前加密货币面临的最大风险是股市5%到10%的回调，”诺伊纳说.
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1 Q+ O; u$ n, W# p随着伯里加倍做空，巴菲特的指标也亮起红灯，市场在年底前面临着越来越大的压力。, O3 z4 \2 z. n0 R9 \: o- n' y4 f# V
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无论这个转折点是源于人工智能泡沫的破裂，收益重置无论是市场动荡还是流动性紧缩，这两位传奇投资者似乎都在为清算做准备。
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7 b* W, _5 Z4 ?( g当一些全球最顶尖的逆向投资者也开始看跌时，在泡沫破裂之前听取他们的警告或许是明智之举。因此，加密货币交易者和投资者必须保持警惕，并进行自己的研究。
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