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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘9 `/ Z# Q) ~1 a
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
3 Y% T/ p6 k% K5 `* h 英超主队
+ v; r' L& _& [. g7 M [" s 胜:11场 79%
5 ?8 K) y! J c( Y" M' i4 V 平:2场 14%
" O ~, ?+ J: x 负:1场 7%
- l7 I$ F4 m1 O6 H* M: U 9 W2 a8 j* E: S' x! o5 m' ^
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
8 ^9 F/ j3 N* q8 i! F
+ i V9 d2 I% I9 N/ Q: u. M 一、初盘阶段
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具体到水位如下:
+ s" v+ A6 c/ [# [$ |8 c 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
9 s" U+ \9 z5 A) ^4 q; j! y 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平9 M0 l l6 ~, h- k9 b/ L1 Z' o
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
( v4 K( e* `5 }5 C$ R8 T) U # L' }' a1 z0 K2 _: S
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:6 u. b+ ^7 q& Z5 r
, r, R$ N6 X1 s4 n& @8 f 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
$ F4 D' L: ]9 o! J3 L5 j. N, w 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
3 S$ _" V7 s, U) b+ l; [! V, e$ n 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
; f& i& O0 g# K! Z 4 K/ A1 t! W: V" {; O
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
' ?, z4 V1 c1 R5 r 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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: v1 J3 y1 J: ^ 二、临场阶段
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/ M; m9 N8 q @# [9 R 具体到盘口如下:1 |3 @* ^$ l! u0 M6 R* u$ i
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜* b% ]( o6 z$ e) ~
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平$ [, v4 U& _1 }, e/ [
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
( I6 G3 p/ p1 y8 W / S! D! ?- n) ]
热刺VS伯恩利3 Y! U/ M4 V/ m& f; J+ M/ c8 b5 Z7 G
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00. q; D8 w' W7 B& |
终盘:0.77球半1.09
! F1 N( z! y3 D C- L& Z
" l7 X1 a8 k9 }' H! ^6 D 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。- w+ e/ m! j% v2 N% W. A
. M Z( R! Z A" m. A1 j 三、球队表现
3 ?/ O! t' P0 ?) r" n! j( v
( }8 `' t F* m& t3 D 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。' ~5 C" k! H6 s3 J
% o: E# x) d S' i/ _
四、投注要点4 X0 x9 Y/ H, Q7 W
* R" ^6 M; ]- R" E" R F5 C 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
1 C4 J% ]4 L$ n0 ?7 y 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平# Y6 t( p. L: {( {
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能7 H. s0 ]# }: G# { m0 w6 Q: Q
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
/ B, O( D" ^+ T- M% Z6 b 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
0 X: M) V7 A% v( y6 l: ~5 ] 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任( W/ @$ j9 }, ]% j; Q! h0 k7 G* N
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
+ {( H" M; P: S& i 6 S+ p3 W( T6 E, ?, X
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法* g$ K$ M7 T$ k$ s+ N6 P" k7 v
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
. i4 w! @2 B! z/ ^( j, I { 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。, D* G. L: ?7 Q" V( W1 H0 u. s1 y
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