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首先回顾下本周发生的事情：熊：美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的; m) |7 z- h5 u/ {( @
3 F N, C/ Z' n6 H! I7 {: {总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所，相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆，因此带来了恐慌，
8 b8 @9 k K$ R9 ]; e- l5 R! I' q1 u0 h9 H8 o8 n( `
方舟基金，灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
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% p t y" q: C1 U# l2 G0 f: d9 X/ U' K0 ^9 A8 [7 R* [
牛：（1）Fidelity，Blackrock都在持续增持比特币，其中blackroak增持3100枚，2 A& Z6 G4 k3 t/ o& ~. p' O7 K: o
9 K1 D" q i9 NFidelity增持1100枚（2）神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币，越跌越买，四天
9 y0 L' y5 t0 Z% f
! |; L; q8 e5 f( x$ q% M内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入，如果未来的有一天，某个国家ZF
5 D. w7 @7 o4 _2 e9 n
* G& Y5 K" i9 L; `1 A宣布其持续买入比特币，可能就是准备抛售，见大顶的时候（3）usdt4天内增发30亿0 b0 q' n$ T7 h! C5 [1 l' f
* N7 ^ n3 j, g& `) x枚，在过去的日子，以周为单位，USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻，我们回到3 @* F6 q* ~) Q D+ g2 N7 m
6 |& l# F9 k: e& i$ u
k线。首先看比特币：从日线上看，比特币在两个红色矩形之间（60000，72000）形成4 |# f' H0 V$ l6 A2 z% T, g2 X
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震荡，振幅逐步收窄，很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18，死
3 }2 f" V$ w O- B4 Z2 U t6 _& h$ [) \! [. W+ I& ?) z% x K
叉一旦形成，上涨趋势会被破环，比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此，为了* W: ?- k& ]6 D: P2 D; i& t
. i( z9 y' r6 M$ u% i避免死叉的形成，比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确: Y I4 e- U* B2 G& T4 d9 h
" ]4 U K0 a- ?
定一个更高的高点，从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300，再次测试60000只是时
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7 @8 B5 v- T3 b' J间问题。如果6万不保，下方HS矩形是大支撑，也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认# }+ W [% y3 U9 j w6 `7 p
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为这是最坏的情况，不认可一些人认为去3万。
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从4小时来看基本和日线一致，无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
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( R% o+ S% F3 j2 g; [) |0 J，已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑: C9 i% U# Y* i$ p0 N& R/ O! N' K
. Y! Q4 u" M* v/ Y% m位被多次测试，那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此，如果比特币不能快速收复73100，) ?0 \: a+ {4 j
+ X7 \0 ~0 M( T8 K( D& O( TEMA200跌破只是时间问题，下一步就看60000的表现。
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) b/ y! T! Z% @考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号，结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空，
- X$ {$ F2 @% Z& b9 F
" J7 @' {1 p% r% L认为比特币至少会去次6万。2 M+ r3 U4 c" I2 R' G
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$ y& P8 b( G a1 A# C抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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