×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 19676
[posts] => 281379
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 396
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2647395 TBC.network 是什么(转) 1714838326 935a
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12048 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
|
|
历史长河的逆流，正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。# N( r! T7 i7 d' Y$ ?% P
# m: Y, A& H( ?& |
许多朋友很不理解，为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4，不仅多数大宗价# X, k9 s& K- G; E
& v" w5 j" k, U0 [6 L
格在上涨，而且，类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速1 k8 [0 ]+ X6 h2 ^1 f8 F! `
) O y/ H! c7 K1 p
猛涨（黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%，比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%）？
: S! n* `& j, O# k1 `. B8 Z: P0 e# @( \' n! X( q
对此进行回答，之于事后解释，机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。8 b: L' m8 [9 h ]
! Q. t8 {- y8 o0 h" g这样的答案，错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑，逻辑主次不分。
8 n: e& h( q/ m3 g( I8 w1 G9 N, }9 J+ J
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释，要知道，从2022年3月美联储启动疯
# p) e& L- w D9 D6 z' y, Q# c) z7 h
狂加息至今，美联储的事实降息一次也没有，明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加, v5 U6 J# u/ \9 M e( |) P) p
! _' U! R* M2 x. `7 b
了525多个基点——但是，在这一疯狂加息的区间，从2022年3月开始，
, s7 y% `- ?( z* X* D6 h& e, v3 ^, m8 X8 {( a
黄金价格是大幅上涨的，比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。" h0 H W" L( t: p& p' I! H
1 e* h" d$ [) Q4 k- O4 u当然，近期中东危机的升级信号，这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉2 X' S& C3 D) n. J5 z4 n
/ e& S% S' K6 q; z, x
升，但这事实依然无法解释，为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超" J& J7 r- Y, Q
0 M8 V, x: Q' D高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。+ b- l' m9 T$ u" v- Z% V
. a; R" g! U7 S+ n+ t! x回答这一切，追溯这一切的逻辑源起，必须进行宏观升维，必须将其置 S: ]7 M( p; _* H% L
3 n9 |; l8 E2 I# n6 c) s7 ]
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
& n: W/ @5 ~- P; b9 f
5 M/ x3 _$ ]8 t8 I, Y产价格走势的研判逻辑源起，这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
- q4 O5 u& x' R' A$ U8 L# x7 v2 y- _/ P: r, q
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
/ E( K& n* [$ D* [+ C8 C9 Q
; S* w4 b8 Q; B7 G# Z# ?# d% P/ S/ m之于大历史周期，过去两年，全球化共识在加速撕裂，且这一加速撕裂之
" I6 E- C9 }% b3 S J: Z9 l4 R0 z: ?* U" E- ?! o; I
于中长期，本质是不可逆的（当然，不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性）。: o5 K+ g4 U8 }% y6 c" S6 f# c
3 \8 K, t; o( {- z而之于逻辑派生，全球化共识的加速撕裂，必然会派生出全球货币共识的加# n9 d" K' L1 P- r$ b! V
3 X/ [, c6 A7 b2 N速崩裂，尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
7 [- e5 P* s# ?- G: ^* C3 H; K, G
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂，除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外（与
) n" [! I9 x( K2 b5 Z% g
5 v+ ]7 g! B6 |5 M全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算），还有更重要的维度，且这一更重
7 V3 r0 z( Z8 V. N7 [6 e* D& J( R$ f
要的维度，事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。9 e2 q& q% z6 {( _; J9 u
8 V6 P" `( G4 q4 b$ n7 r) }) O
0 Q# b7 Q& o. |7 M0 I |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11484 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17384 小时
本月在线: 9 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3388 小时
本月在线: 5 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16875 小时
本月在线: 42 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12080 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9366 小时
本月在线: 15 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8184 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 793 小时
本月在线: 15 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2115 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
