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[虚拟币交流]
K33 Research：比特币现货ETF批准后70%可能会跌！（3日转）
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随着美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对比特币现货ETF的审批截止日逼近，市场密切注意任何$ Q! R. L3 y9 X- e+ z w; E) [
风吹草动。K33 Research的分析师Vetle Lunde在昨(2)日的一份报告中就指出，预计在1月8日至1月10日间，' Q2 W9 o! P2 u& P4 @; M
SEC将对比特币现货ETF做出决策，但影响市场行情的消息可能会提前公布。0 R" H3 t$ Y. I5 o. H
Lunde强调比特币现货ETF的批准将可能引发一场「卖出新闻」事件，即市场参与者在重大事件发生后迅速卖出以
h/ h& e/ `0 n- c% |: g获利。Lunde估计这种情况发生的机率为75%，而批准后推动价格上涨的可能性为20%，被拒绝的可能性为5%。
. k+ N* e9 y; A- M" N3 s比特币泡沫迹象" Z+ U6 V2 m/ g; ]* y$ _8 l; A
Lunde还指出了市场的泡沫迹象，特别是在芝加哥商品交易所(CME)观察到的期货溢价高达年化50%。此外，过1 Z6 N0 d1 K2 I/ P/ b8 @$ `
去三个月比特币的未平仓合约增加超过50,000枚BTC，显示机构投资者预期ETF将获批准，并因此增加了多头部, A% E* [1 G3 L" W
位。- W5 _& R& N7 m" q& j
同时在散户投资者方面，比特币永续合约的资金费率一度达到+72%的年化高点。Lunde解释道，距离ETF审批还
. m* M7 M' X, Y( c' Z有一周的时间，空头不愿进入市场，这增加了现货市场的永续溢价，并使多头成本高昂。
) d3 ?# O" f% l* l“在ETF审批之后，多头的激进杠杆可能会导致市场出现多头挤压(轧多)。
0 c# Q6 v0 u( _" c9 x0 }! _短期看跌长期看好* K7 P7 Y }2 f
总结来说，Lunde指出，比特币现货ETF被大量预期，但是否过度预期将取决于产品推出后的资金流入。他预计，. |3 ?) |, v7 j. S' T* j: H
目前的比特币价格上涨将在ETF审批日达到周期高峰，原因是短期交易者的大量获利回吐和溢价的不可持续性。
* ^( A# b! c* ?& m0 j& `0 U, e然而从长远来看，他看好通过潜在的现货ETF的资金流入，加上4月份比特币减半事件的供应减少，将在今年进一
7 m. v' ?" Y9 s% h( }( q! W5 K步推动市场。% x# o3 F6 n. u
彭博分析师：SEC可能延迟决策% z' z J( h1 V/ G1 V) r s
对于比特币现货ETF是否会在1月通过，彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas也提出保留的观点。( E9 d7 Z8 C/ H4 h; W) G! [
Balchunas接受Cointelegraph访问时表示，尽管被拒绝的可能性较小，但如果SEC「需要更多时间」来考虑，这/ ]! U/ S- a3 ^+ k: H
个月可能会拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请。Balchunas和同僚James Seyffart给出90%的批准机率，也就是说可能有& Y' u3 e, c4 u' [: P' j
10%机率遭到拒绝。
# Y2 X# R3 Q: F% d6 `8 d" q但Balchunas表示，鉴于SEC和比特币ETF发行方所投入的大量时间和努力，他认为在最后关头直接拒绝比特币/ C) m3 p, l! a8 x$ O r1 ]1 Z3 p
ETF的可能性不大。- ]/ i& }" _0 B5 N
此外，如果SEC确实发出直接否决的决定，Balchunas认为基金发行方可能会跟随加密资产管理公司Grayscale的4 l3 l' d. y1 C! c
脚步，对监管机构提起诉讼。
G/ o$ Y! ^7 c" E/ a s他说：人们已经投入了太多的金钱和努力，现在不可能放弃。所以，这不会是结束。7 s9 ?/ B7 ]" o
@/ B% _7 I9 X% o! q0 g
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